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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Master (Hijacked) who wrote (8961)	4/16/2000 1:02:00 AM
From: brightness00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Not having a tight circuit breaker sometimes is good. 700 points on the DOW is really not that big of a deal, only equivalent to about 200 points on the NASDAQ. Some markets like Tokyo has 700 points limit on individual issues that value into 20-30k. What happens is that a washout would take weeks, if not months to play out. Given that statisticly markets rise over time, slowing down the paces only reduces your annualized long term return. Panic selling is good; people will eventually learn it's a folly trying to find the absolute bottom. Buying opportunities pass by so fast, it's ridiculous to think you can sell a portfolio now and pick them up piece by piece at better prices later. After a few times, people will figure out they just have to step up to the plate when they deem the price acceptable.

To: Master (Hijacked) who wrote (8961)	4/16/2000 1:09:00 AM
From: SJS	Respond to of 24042

Good. So...lets be constructive. I agree, Greed got the best of me in some ways too. It's human nature to have some greed! I've learned a lot from this episode. I hate to lose money, but I did. So did everyone in AMERICA (and some abroad!). I want to channel that experience into better rules for me to lose less. Master, tell me. Who is they? I guess from your comments that you're a broker. Tell me WHY NAZ doesn't have trading curbs? Tell me why they take their curbs limits and levels from the NYSE? Ludicrous. Many times last week the NYSE was UP and the NAZ was being crushed. NYSE limits don't help the NAZ if the DOW is UP! I guess that they (who ever they are!) don't see it as carnage. It's a market! There is NO guarantee that everyone will win. It was orderly, and there were losses, but it's only carnage if you lose money? I see that point, but it's fleeting..... Billions were made by shorters this week. I didn't make much that way, but many did, and its only fitting that they do get their turn once in a while. The propensity of the markets is UP. Shorters have their own set of risks, as you know. They get their fast declines, but have UNLIMITED LOSSES because stock can go up to INFINITY. That's some set of rules for a game! Ask some of the investors/traders/hedge funds that shorted RMBS about that. Many experienced true carnage for THEM as the stock went UP and they were short at 50. It went to $450! So ......it's only carnage when the majority lose? I'll agree for the moment that sounds OK cause you and I are in the majority. (Can we laugh together for just a moment? <g>) However......let's get back to that pesky "THEY". AG will ONLY step in (a la 1998) for a systemic problem. If LTCM were to go down and their debt would cascade the banking system because they were so highly leveraged (you know....the "T" word for dollars......), that's a huge potential systemic problem! We didn't have that this week (at least not yet....)! We had a a pretty bad wreck, but the patient's going to live if we continue to have an orderly, liquid enough market. AG is between a rock and a hard place right here right now. He thinks he sees wage inflation, price inflation on the horizon, and asset inflation NOW. He's doing what he is supposed to do to combat these things. Raise rates. Slow down the engine of growth. Remove liquidity from the banking system to restrain the voracious buying spree with all those dollars. Get the econ growth back to targets that are well defined. Anyway...I'd like to know "WHO YELLED FIRE?" I didn't. You didn't. Abbey didn't. Joe didn't. All Abbey did was say that her targets have been met and she's reducing her allocation of stocks 5%, which she's putting to cash. She's a smart cookie. She saw that many stocks were overvalued. Look at the NAZ chart man! Straight up at 45 degrees without a meaningful rest. It was an INCREDIBLE SPRINT! One more thing about stops. I think that one of the big learning experiences from 87 was that stops just make it worse. If you halt trading, then real fear sets in because people can't get out. However, I didn't like the outcome either, but from what I saw, there wasn't panic, but there were no buyers and few bids! Who wants to step into this? Are values compelling for you or your clients right now? How would stops have helped here? Would a cooling of period really make people think twice about selling? If you watch the futures market, they have stops when limits are reached. But from what I've seen, sometimes as soon as they re-open them, the have again gone down to the new limits. This happened in Japan last year, too. In closing Vince, I much prefer this constructive set of dialog with you and would enjoy continuing it, as we search for common ground with mutual intelligence. Even if we differ in our opinions, we can do so constructively! We both have demonstrable skills to bring to bear. Let's focus on regrouping our cash and our stamina for next week. I intended to use every resource at my disposal to maximize my ability to rebuild some positions, and re-learn what a normal market should look like and how I should treat it. Cheers and Regards, Steve