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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael r potter who wrote (4170)	4/16/2000 12:07:00 PM
From: LarryCPA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

Mike, That is a lot to think about. I agree with most of what you said. As a long term investor I only see the trend up. (There is no 20 year period where the market has had a net loss). The problem is getting the newbies to think beyond next week or next month. A few years ago I was more into market timing. I was selling calls on CMGI as it rose. Needless to say I lost half my stock, which even now is well above that price. If you miss the 20 best trading days of the year your performance is 50% of what it would be if you were in for those days. All I can do is wait this out. I've sold off a lot of what I've always considered to be B & C players which I don not think will regain their luster. The money, for at least a while, is going to be in the big stocks. I think that SFE is an A stock, but doesn't get the respect it deserves. I will have to wait through another market cycle to see it find its level. (I was waiting for 100 to lighten up, but think that it's fair value 12 months is around 70). I think that Monday will be rough at the open with the margin calls. However all of this pension money has to go somewhere. Another plunge may cause Greenspan to not raise rates, which would give us a small boost. His comments on the "hundred year flood" were IMO absurd. He bailed out his friends in the hedge fund that blew up a few years ago. This has affected more people more severely than that, if he acted then, and won't act now, I will have to question his abilities and/or motivations. I just went through my numbers and I am back to early November 99, I won't be surprised to August before we start the slow climb back.