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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: studdog who wrote (8344)	4/16/2000 1:55:00 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Respond to of 10921

Interesting report I read in WSJ on investing theory (in Friday's paper, story on NASDAQ). Some academics set up a program to simulate the market,and then had 1/2 of participants invest based on fundamentals, and 1/2 on technicals (momentum, basically). Then the participants had to readjust their approach periodically based on results. If the period of readjustment was long, then fundamental approach won out; if short, then technical approach won out. It is consistent with the market now. Seems to me though that there should be a fundamentalist approach to break through the pattern (like in a poker game, you see two players are playing in cahoots [one player with a so-so hand raising the player with the good hand to build the pot], you fold until you get the very good hand, and let them build the pot for you). The way I think would be look for stocks oversold by the momentum people, and when you own a stock that the momentum people have moved into, sell it, maybe buying back when the mo-mo people have moved on. Still leaves the problem of timing the bottom or top, though. I think I'll put in some orders on several beat-down stocks about 10% below Friday's closing price.

To: studdog who wrote (8344)	4/16/2000 5:51:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Opinions vary on the matter of cheap stocks in Semi-land. Some worth a second look besides the ones you mentioned are: LRCX, NVLS, AMAT, SVGI, SFAM. Probably all will do well, but as to who will be the absolute percentage winner?????? Good Luck This week...Jerome