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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Digger Sacket who wrote (13278)	4/16/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Cautious_Optimist	Respond to of 15132

Bob Brinker was 100% right about the risks and probabilties, and he deserves respect. It is never too late to rotate into better assets or to hedge risk, discounting any transaction for tax consequences. In the long term the biggest issue is new valuations, not prices as of Friday. Instead of Simon-sez momentum games and paying 500X Sales for tech companies with no earnings, IMO we will shortly return to "show me the earnings and revenue growth", and more traditional valuations. As long as we have our health we will be presented with plenty of long and short opportunities in the coming months and years. Panic selling and buying is for gamblers. Good luck everyone.

To: Digger Sacket who wrote (13278)	4/16/2000 2:46:00 PM
From: Gary D	Respond to of 15132

"You folks know Bob much better than I do. If it's too late to get into cash at this level, does that mean not much downside from here on???" My interpretation: No, it does not mean downside is limited. Bob is just not willing to say "sell" at levels lower than where he issued his signal in January. Why should he? To do so would degrade his performance statistics as a market timer: he could later be quoted as having said "sell" at these lower levels. A better indication of his current opinion is his comment yesterday that he does not recommend buying anything right now.

To: Digger Sacket who wrote (13278)	4/16/2000 4:01:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

"If it's too late to get into cash at this level, does that mean not much downside from here on???" Second clause: If you begin with the assumption that this is a bear market, then we are in the first big leg down, there will be great downside from here. That only refers to the numbers! Perhaps just as important (more?) is the psychological effect a bear market has: it grinds down then has a powerful counter-trend rally and people regain some hope. The hope fades when the next leg grinds down even lower; fear takes over. The fear fades as the next counter-trend rally pops off. Then, the down-trend takes over again....those left with substantial equity holdings are ground down with the relentlessness of it all. At the bottom, they are demoralised; they have been whipsawed by their emotions. The ones who remain, sell at the very bottom in the last panic-driven blowoff. Read the accounts of previous bear markets. First clause: Bob has answered this on the radio several times. He said, he has no advice for someone who did not follow his Jan call. Somewhat in contradiction, he said, a person might try to time his/her exit for the top of the next counter-trend rally. Ciao, David Todtman