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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oak Tree who wrote (46661)	4/16/2000 2:45:00 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Date Open High Low Close 16-Nov-87 325.20 325.70 321.70 322.40 13-Nov-87 323.20 324.10 322.60 323 12-Nov-87 323.40 324.80 322.80 324 11-Nov-87 319.10 319.50 317.20 317.80 10-Nov-87 314.90 316 314.60 315.20 9-Nov-87 321.10 321.40 319.10 320.40 6-Nov-87 327.40 328.80 326.20 326.40 5-Nov-87 322.80 326.40 322.10 326.20 4-Nov-87 317.90 321.10 316.10 320.10 3-Nov-87 324.20 324.30 317.60 320.70 2-Nov-87 325.40 328.50 324.20 328.30 30-Oct-87 320.40 323.40 306.20 323.30 29-Oct-87 297.10 307.20 296.90 307.10 28-Oct-87 289.50 293.30 288.50 291.90 27-Oct-87 304.40 306.90 296.10 296.30 26-Oct-87 312.80 312.80 298.90 298.90 23-Oct-87 330.20 331.10 328 328.50 22-Oct-87 339.90 341.80 335.70 336.10 21-Oct-87 343.70 352.30 343.70 351.90 20-Oct-87 351.40 351.40 326.60 327.80 19-Oct-87 394.50 404.80 360.20 360.20 16-Oct-87 418.40 418.60 406.20 406.30 15-Oct-87 424.40 426.30 422.40 422.50 14-Oct-87 432.40 432.80 427.60 428.30

To: Oak Tree who wrote (46661)	4/16/2000 3:01:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Just picking up from your crash analysis: 1987 crash - the DOW - took the DOW some 23 months before it finally recovered (high to high). The safest buying opportunity has in March of 1989, i.e. if you bought that break out, price never again came back there. The safest breakout with highest return was the third month after the initial crash, but you had to be prepared to sell as price did pull back but not violate support. 1987 crash, - the Nasdaq NDX - no data available. 1987 crash, - the Nasdaq COMPX - the month following the crash was a small inside bar and the month after that broke to the upside. Right then was when you should have bought. It took 21 months for the COMPX to return to pre-crash highs. The correction in 1990 didn't violate the support required, so long term buy and holders did fine, there were plenty of opportunities to get out in 89/90 before the correction as well, so the nimble could have done very well. Or bought again then. --- So it would seem that the moral of the story is to buy big once it starts going up and don't get shaken out. And for many people this may be a good plan. The one cautionary note I'd add here is that in 1929 the market rallied a short bit after the crash, and then continued down before bottoming out some 33 months after the initial crash. Nothing saying that this time won't be more like '29 than '87. Just something to think about.