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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mph who wrote (28714)	4/16/2000 4:07:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 63513

I take it you don't think we've reached Armageddon just yet. Seems to be what a lot of people are saying. Here's some pretty simplistic reasoning... If you assume 40% earnings/share price growth for NAZ stocks as a whole.(again this is the big boys - the NAZ100.. ). go back three years (NAZ @ 1500) and project the 40% growth you get the NAZ trading at 2940. Of course this doesn't always work if you apply to selected securities. INTC was trading @35 so a 40% growth rate would price it at 67 (current price is 110) CSCO was trading under 10 - 40% growth dictates a price of 20! (current price is 57) MSFT was trading at 30 - generating a price @ 40% growth of 59 (current price is 74) DELL was trading at 8 = todays price of 16? (Current price is 47) Basically take the price of the premier stocks on the NAZ three years ago and we should have doubled in that time frame - actually not a bad return if you think about it.. We're just jaded. Don't get me wrong this analysis is very weak but enlightening and shocking as well. I hope I'm wrong. But what if? That all said I think some companies are continuing to rock and that these companies will be where money get's parked... they will still hold historically high PE's. Those that think technology issues are going back to the days of 20-30 PE's are mistaken. Technology companies should be valued as growth companies - not value based. Still, I'm being careful about valuations. I'm looking at pitching JDSU, SLR, and JNPR.. terrible valuatoins. I'm looking at adding SEG, HWP, and more SEBL.. maybe even LU. Still reviewing my CNXT, BRCM, PRSF, and QCOM posistions. OG