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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46765)	4/16/2000 7:56:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz--re Naz Comp--even for 1-2day traders we need to see an elliott (iv)-(v) before this particular wave is complete. So far, we are still in (iii). Judging by Globex tonight, we will again be down at the open--If Naz Comp prints below 3207 then that will be close to the end of (iii)--speculators and AJC permabull crowd (eg add 5% to stocks etc) will then buy heavily and cause a rally for (iv)--which will fail and then we head down one last time (for this wave anyway) and make another new low (below whatever low we make below 3207 Mon am)---I suspect the bottom of this move down from 4475 will come Tuesday am not Monday--as Monday will likely open down then rally to a gain of up to 200 pts on the Comp but then start the (v) down before Monday's close and finish (v)down near Tues' open.--my 2c--watch 3207 Comp--once that falls, we should likely need a 200-250 pt rally and THEN one final whoosh down. Traders shouldn't buy Monday's opening whoosh down but wait for the second one after the rally back up.---Tues is also a full moon (vbg)-----ALSO ---if the final whoosh down on Tues am prints below 3045 on Naz comp, this wave itself could simply be a larger Wave 3 down such that we fail to exceed 3649 on larger Rally from Tues and then we head down again below Tues low to complete 5 larger waves down----In summary---1)watch 3207 break Mon am to confirm (iii)--2)don't buy ensuing rally off Mon am low--3)buy subsequent new low if intervening rally Mon is +200pts and 4)IF such subsequent low is then below 3045, be prepared to sell again as the larger rally after that may abort below 3649 causing sub-3000 on next whoosh down. 3649 is going to become a major point to watch once the real retrace starts (not the Mon am retrace) if the final whoosh down by Tues am is below 3045.--my 2c--currently 80% cash with no techs yet.