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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1045)	4/16/2000 6:37:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev: AMAT is @ your old 80 inflection point (if I remember corectly). I still don't think the semi cycle is over (but that depends on how the markets play out in the coming weeks). Don't forget its options expiration week. Lets hope its not as bad as we think it can be. Still not enough fear out there. Tim

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1045)	4/16/2000 8:03:00 PM
From: Bosco	Respond to of 30051

Hi Zeev - with regard to the oversea markets, I think they are a trailing indicator and not a leading one, by that I mean they all react to the US market. The question is that would that form a vicious circle causing a downward spiral. It is entirely possible. If this is a repeat of 87, we are in big trouble, not so much of a powerful spike down, which is bad enough in and of itself. The difference this time around is that Mr Greenspan has tacitly gone on record to say that there is no bail out [no source, but he mentioned something about the 100 year event!] So, where is the catalyst for reversal. So much so, it is of the financial market's self-interest to avoid playing reverse music chair, to see who is the first one to fire the bull salvo. Strong economy or not, if we pushed this scenario to the extreme, we could conceivably get an equity driven collapse of world economy, as deals begin to cancel and projects put on hold. Personally, being a hopeless romantic, I believe this won't happen, especially when Naz has corrected by 35% and both Dow and S&P close to 13%. However, I simply don't know what would stop the decline far beyond your scenario if we were into 87 type cleansing, which is a 20 or 25% incline, quick math to suggest 3300*.8=2,640. Oops! best, Bosco