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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kendall harmon who wrote (93611)	4/16/2000 7:05:00 PM
From: kendall harmon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Nasdaq futures down over 80, but it is early cme.com

To: kendall harmon who wrote (93611)	4/17/2000 4:31:00 AM
From: lee kramer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

KendallHarmon: Well rested, I arose a bit earlier than usual. Dortmunder was up, drinking coffee, flipping through some charts. "Morning Dortmunder" I said. He nodded in my direction, continued to look at his charts. "Say Dortmunder" I asked my buddy with the 197 IQ who trades rather well, "What's gonna happen in the market's today? I hear the Far Eastern markets are down sharply" I said. "Nothing but a typical reaction to our markets last Friday" he said. "Oh" I said. "So what's going on. Seems like there's a lot of confusion and fear out there." Dortmunder put down his coffee, put his charts aside. "Consider the market as a retail operation. Inventory is acquired, "accumulated". Eventually a few sectors will come into fashion, become "hot". These hot sectors will be "marked" up, perhaps sharply. We've seen this recently have we not?" "Yes" I agreed. "Then, at some point...and it is not possible to determine when, a priori, buying and selling come into balance and prices discontinue rising...they move sideways. Perhaps they will continue the prior up-trend, perhaps not. If they do not, the next phase is "mark-down"; it appears rather clear that we are ensconsed in a lovely mark-down phase. If the mark-down phase is rather sudden and severe, fear is felt. At some point the fear and selling will abate and inventory...stocks, some stocks, will be re-accumulated. This pattern, this game, can be observed over and over." I nodded at the little fellow, said "And you look at charts to see which phase of the cycle we're in?" "Indeed" he said, sipping again at his coffee, perusing his charts. "But Dortmunder" I interrupted, "What are they gonna do today?" I pleaded. He sighed, said "My dear fellow, I have no idea. I shall observe, perhaps act. I've found one stock I shall acquire if the market takes a sharp tumble. And I've found another stock that I shall short if a sharp rally develops." He went back to his coffee and charts. "But Dortmunder, what should I do today?" He seemed annoyed at my ignorance. "You can buy if they fall preciitiously, you can short if they rally dramatically. But I suggest you go for a walk, play some tennis, perhaps a round or two of golf. You need do nothing." "Thanks Dortmunder" I said. "I think I'll watch you, perhaps follow your lead." "As you wish" he said. (Lee)