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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (24051)	4/16/2000 10:53:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 57584

Nikkei down 8.57% here. . . Hang Seng down 7.47%. . . . .http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^HSI&d=t. . . Singapore down 7.87%.. .South Korea down 10.06%. . .Australia down . .5.3%. . . Malaysia down 5.2%. . .New Zealand down 4.5%.

To: Rande Is who wrote (24051)	4/16/2000 10:57:00 PM
From: KevinThompson	Respond to of 57584

Rande, I stated Friday morning that I thought it looked like you were going to get your highly expected, but seemingly delayed "fear" element later that day. I believe that is indeed what we saw. Now I am expecting continued harsh selling at least through Monday afternoon. But, I am believing that the bottom is near, perhaps closer than we might think. Once it becomes that you can't read a market commentary without seeing words like fear, crash, selloff, pain, bearishness, bloodbath, etc., you have to know that we are near a bottom. (The opposite is true also, as we on the home thread are well aware - when every mag cover says "it's a bull market, blah, blah, blah" - it's time to get out of the way, the selloff is coming.) I was reading Briefing tonight and their take is that the fear in the markets right now is a very good sign. And that the fear will soon be indicating a bottom has arrived. Here's a sampling: So, when does the healing process begin? For some, not soon enough, but given the likelihood that foreign markets will trade lower in sympathy with the U.S. market and that investors will be bombarded over the weekend with stories about bear markets, margin calls, and comparisons to 1929 and 1987, the activity come Monday morning could get pretty ugly-- and perhaps panicky. There were hints of that today. The great irony there is that fear is a constructive emotion for this market as complacency in the face of these large losses has kept the buyers on the sidelines. Admittedly, we were among the complacent bunch; we were blind and now we see. For those that argue there is still a good deal of excess to be worked off, we will grant them that. After all, the Dow is up 3,286% since April 13, 1929 -- there is certainly plenty of excess to be worked off there. How much is enough? Time will tell, but our fear is our hope now and we believe the end is in sight. -- PJO Sitting with airbags plugged in and seatbelts tightened, KevinT