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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (31077)	4/17/2000 9:24:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Respond to of 42771

The Market and what's going on We have had erratic massive speculation going on for years. We now have a counter reaction taking hold --- fear of being caught with stocks that have no fundamentals or profit prospects. We have an instability factor --- Greenspan and the Fed pushing or trying to push the economy down. We have real inflation fears. This makes for a correction back to realistic valuations in anticipation of an economic slowdown. That is the long term trend. Because there isn't any sign of a slowdown there is much more coming. It is a little late for the medicine being applied. IT is not clear the Fed has control of the situation. Some people such as me have not believed that the Fed is a planning agency or that it has the refined tools for controlling the economy that everyone assumes. The Asian crisis showed in the financial area the Fed can have a greater effect than I anticipated. But how strong will the Fed medicine have to become. Do you have any variable rate interest debt? If I were long some of these high flying stocks, I would treat them something like NOVL when it went to 43. When they resume their flight I'd sell. It makes no sense to hold CSCO at 150 times trailing earnings unless you think there is not a recession or economic slowdown coming that will have an effect on CSCO's business. Remember Volker. The Fed just squeezes credit until something happens. Its the consumer that will take it in his debt load and cut back. If I understand CSCO, its business is built upon physical network expansion. Whereas Novell takes the existing physical infrastructure and makes it do more. Novell is about to sell something (Drew's Internet Operating System) that saves companies money in using the internet. Sounds to me like that has a future.