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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (22919)	4/17/2000 8:42:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Many years ago I read a very well-written account of how investor behavior is affected by market declines: - The investor having missed the early stages of the bull market has heard /read all the stories of $100K invested in various companies, X number of years ago, now being worth $y million dollars. - The investor joins the band-wagon -- and is pleasantly surprised that he/she is making more money than ever before. - All declines are temporary and the move up is unrelenting until that decline that turns out to be different than the ones in the past. - First, there is a sense of shock at what has occurred. - Then comes a feeling of regret that one did not cash out all of those huge profits that once existed but at the same time one thinks -- "Prices are still well above where I entered" -This was written in the days before on line trading and when one gets the monthly brokerage statement the feeling of regret is magnified as one reflects on where one's equity is now compared to where it was. - Prices decline to well below where one entered and then there is the sense that one should have at least gotten out at break-even. -The next months brokerage statement comes and there is almost a sense of despondency that occurs. -Prices continue to decline and the investor decides that when prices get to where one originally entered, it will be the time to exit at break-even. -the decline continues and one stops opening brokerage statements -- the experience is too depressing. -the decline continues -- the news continues to be bleak, the commentaries are very negative as to the future. -our investor stops even checking price quotes each day on the stocks he owns -- but once in a while he does so and the decline from the last time that he looked is enough to make one cry. --finally, our ltb&h investor decides enough is enough, he calls his broker and tells him/her to sell everything and get one out of this sink-hole. Never again -- our investor decides -- will he/she ever invest in the market again. --when that occurs, it is usually at or near the bottom -- the final stage of capitulation that accompanies every decent bottom. -- The cycle resumes - perhaps the same investor or may be a new one who never invested in the market before. There were a couple of stages in between -- which I have omitted since it really is more of the same.

To: Tom Trader who wrote (22919)	4/17/2000 10:59:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tom, You make some excellent points! Not being in the main stream regarding a lot of issues (not owing a cell phone being just one example; liking Bach, Wagner, Simon & Garfunkle, and big-band jazz equally being another example) I don't consider myself a very good judge of human nature. If you say it's human nature for the mettle of the LTB&H folks to be tested during a bear market, I have no empirical basis for disagreeing with you. About your screen name -- when I buy or sell a stock I think I'm executing a trade. But I certainly don't consider myself a trader except in rare situations. Understanding that context, I never concluded anything about you because of your screen name. More important, one of the real strengths of cyberspace is that we don't have any of the visual or audio tip-offs that cause us to jump to conclusions about stereotypes. But if we were to meet in person (I'll be very embarrassed if we have and I don't remember) I would hope that I would make no conclusions about your dress, mannerisms or whatever. That's because I hope I'm not in the main stream on the issue evaluating people either. :) Someone ... said that I should be more direct about what I wanted to say and not do this very polite, kinder, gentler approach :) My recommendation is that you continue to be more direct using your polite, kind, gentle approach that is so effective. Keep it up! money management, IMO, means more than not using margin and avoiding short-term options. I couldn't agree more. Very glad to see you making a point of it. Put lurk mode forever in your past and be a regular participant here. Please! --Mike Buckley

To: Tom Trader who wrote (22919)	4/17/2000 11:00:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Thanks for taking the time to introduce yourself again, TT, and for your well articulated thoughts. I'm sorry you felt snubbed by the lack of response to your earlier posts, but don't feel like the Lone Ranger. As many have found, grilla hunters are a tough audience, so if the topic presented didn't immediately capture the fancy of the gang, it just meant you needed to persevere. The best example of this was a 6 month effort by Mike Buckley to interest us in his front office game. He finally wore us down, and today a number of us own Gorilla Siebel <gg>. >> I suspect that you, UF and some of the others on this thread probably have come to the conclusion -- especially given my "handle" on SI and the absence of any information on my profile -- that I am not a ltb&h type. Actually it was your name coupled with the observation that most of your recent activity has been on the Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures thread. It's very rare to find someone who daytrades and practices ltb&h. But I can see the possibility since I serve as both thread greeter and bouncer <lol>. >> However, as important as proper stock selection, is money management -- and money management, IMO, means more than not using margin and avoiding short-term options. Sorry, TT; from a GG standpoint, I have to disagree, and I also disagree that money management was overlooked in the fm. The type of money management you have outlined recently is a form of timing (technical investing), and quoting from the fm, <The Gorilla Game> is not technical investing. This philosophy is based on following the changes in stock price as they relate to pricing change theory, not to the market dynamics of the industries involved. It is all about how the stock market reacts, not about the fundamentals of value. As such it follows a completely different orientation from anything we have discussed, and is not likely to be confused with the gorilla game. Your post about investor behavior was spot on and very timely. It may help some of the newcomers to the game understand that their concerns are very natural, which may help them gain a stronger grip on their holdings. Regards, uf