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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: biowa who wrote (962)	4/17/2000 6:54:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

Well top-tier-tech was back today; not so biotech. Here's an extract from a piece from Jim Kramer at TSC: This market will not bail the margined players out. It simply will not let them get out of here alive. Even as the market lifted at the opening, it didn't lift the heavily margined names -- the stocks that have come public in the last 18 months. Now it is punishing those names severely. Why aren't these names coming back? Three answers: supply, supply and supply. If the margined sellers don't blink and sell, the venture capitalists blink and sell. If the venture capitalists don't blink and sell, the executives blink and sell. If the executives don't blink and sell, the rank and file blinks and sells. And if the employees don't blink and sell, Buzz Gould gets his redemptions and sells. These new stocks are ticking time bombs with their jittery owners. They can stay up for only so long before one of these cohorts tries to grab something off the table before the stocks blow up. That's why we are being conservative, why we are buying household names and selling what is ever left of the funny-money names. We have to do it because someone else will do it first. We want to be in stocks that get cheaper as they get lower -- older stocks -- not more expensive (because the newer stocks are ruled by chartists who like stocks less as they go down.). We don't want to be in stocks where the shareholder base is your enemy. We want to be in stocks that have been hit hard already, that are seasoned where the owners are not thinking about getting out. Unfortunately, the downside of that successful biotech underwriting season is now upon us, as Rick has been pointing out. Biotechs, as far as the masses are concerned, are (alas) in Kramer's class of stock that looks more expensive as they go down. My advice: stay cautious for now. A month from now biotechs could be +30% or -30%, and I have no idea which. Just make sure you don't drown if we hit the -30% figure. Peter