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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4220)	4/17/2000 3:13:00 PM
From: Kent Rattey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero, "And when the "CDMA is Nokia" scenario unfolds - it happens because Nokia was clever enough to bypass second-generation CDMA and leap directly into W-CDMA." They can't make first generation after several years, but they will leapfrog to third??? Don't you think that's a bit unrealistic. Kent

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4220)	4/17/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

You won't get any hedging from me. Confusion sometimes, but I'm not given to hedging. Of course it is much more difficult for Q! to produce both W-CDMA and cdma2000 ASICs and software. I guess it almost doubles the troubles. The more different they are, the greater the problem. If too different, they simply won't go into a small handset. If Nokia specializes only in W-CDMA, it does improve their prospects, but it is glib to say they skipped 2G. They did not. They signed up way back in 1990 and for half a decade worked on it. Then in the late 1990s they decided to make a run for a wideband, high data rate CDMA method of getting WWeb onto a handset while hoping to cut out the rapidly growing cdmaOne world. So far, so bad! It has not been total failure but Nokia does NOT have much market share in cdmaOne. W-CDMA remains a gleam in the laboratory though it's fair to say that it is far beyond VapourWear though it is still in the realm of Vaporware. There are only prototypes operating in very special conditions. That's about where Q! was with CDMA back in early 1991 when they ran around San Diego testing prototype networks. Tero, that's 10 years ago. TEN years. That equals one decade. [Okay a bit of poetic maths there]. Nokia has had a decade. That is not a LEAP into 3G. That's a very, very slow dragged-out battle. It is not over yet. It seems likely to be 2005 before full-blown W-CDMA is pandemic. GPRS is a good space-filler. The longer it drags out, the greater the prospects for Nokia to convert their GSM majesty to CDMA. But others will not be standing still in that time. Yes, Nokia has an advantage. But so did Motorola and Ericsson in the early 1990s when Nokia was some minor Japanese company which nobody had heard of. There seem to be a few Korean and Japanese companies keen to take up the slack. I can't wait for WWeb Armageddon. That is going to be the biggest fun! My bets are mostly placed already and unless we get a real market drop instead of the little joke we just had, they are fully-placed. Go Globalstar, rah, rah, rah. Yayyyy Q! Come on Nokia, get that CDMA stuff roaring... Maurice