Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (1144)	4/17/2000 5:07:00 PM
From: Jack of All Trades	Respond to of 33421

Do you think it's over? I suspect we move up this week and down next to find the bottom... I didn't see enough puking last week... :>))

To: John Pitera who wrote (1144)	4/17/2000 5:54:00 PM
From: el paradisio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John, Message 13448439

To: John Pitera who wrote (1144)	4/17/2000 9:47:00 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Jeff, in a liquidation bear Market like 1973-74 Money leaves stocks. It does not rotate around and stay in Utilities or food stocks, consumer nondurables etc. It goes to other assets classes Exactly ! In the 73-74, the oil embargo fueled inflation like nothing before. Real Estate was the main beneficiary of this event (granted all the baby boomers were also buying houses like mad!). This asset became the "competitive" asset for stocks, particularly residential real estate which did not need to be analyzed in terms of "capitalization rates", but rather under the theory of the "greater fool". This time around, there is no oil embargo, (perhaps only a spike in oil prices that it may not last). In addition, Real estate is not about to become a competitive asset, since : 1) baby boomers are not buying houses, they are putting money away for retirement... and.... 2) Real estate development has to contend with: planning commissions under the influence of the wet-lands regulations, coastal commissions, the green owl movement, EPA clean-up sites AND the savings and loan cowboys are no longer free to create boom towns out of nowhere anymore. In addition, a more educated investor that understands capitalization rates, vacancy rates and electronic commerce, is today's real estate investor of industrial warehouses rather than run-down houses that went up in price just like the ".bomb" stocks. I was in England at the time and in the thing I used to do back then what cost 1,000 sterling, soon became 5,000 sterling, THAT was serious inflation. So... what would [could] be the "competitive asset"...? I do no see one. Besides.... I think that the ".bomb" craze is over. In other words the theory of the "greater fool" is over, now earnings and common sense investing will be more prevalent in making investment decisions. In my opinion. btw... Thanks to all of you for the best thread in SI.