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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michelda who wrote (4859)	4/17/2000 5:28:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6020

Chartists don't get rich. Technical analysis is there the same as horoscopes and fortune tellers because many people are not very scientific. I say if someone tells you that the charts say this or that, ask them for the name and address of anybody who got rich and stayed rich following charts.

To: michelda who wrote (4859)	4/18/2000 10:26:00 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6020

Michelda, hope you are taking it as well as can be expected. I believe it is too late to sell 9984. I sold my warrant because I may have to hold the stock for a while and also because 9984 may not recover to a level above the 56k warrant strike price in the time before Mar 2001. I believe 9984 will recover, and do so sooner rather than later, although I admit that I will then probably drastically reduce my 9984 exposure and go for balance. Over concentration was an unforgivable and complacent mistake. All my other stocks are not concept stocks, but 9984 weighting dragged me down. I still look forward to Nasdaq Japan, JGB maturity liquidity, and 3-for-1 split, along with Son and a hodge podge of other events to float us upward. I did not own nor intend to buy any Hikari. 9984 is not a Hikari. I really do believe and all indications are that 9984 was sold off for profit recognition by institutions. I am not buying like crazy because I want to leave a bit of stamina for the long haul. I am adding only to QCOM right now. I have not written puts like crazy either, only on CHL, NEM, and TWX (for AOL). The only things I have sold are my Softbank warrants (lots) and my HK second liners. I am not buying QQQ (Nasdaq downside protection) put, because I do not like to buy options. Immediately, I will buy first, and then write put on Ariba. For rest, I am happy to wait for overall recovery or absolute collapse. I feel complacent, and therefore I am concerned that I may be wrong about things. I do not have an opinion about either market direction or state of economy. I only know we must be careful. For economic opinion, I forward a note from my Hawaii based friend as below: Expect one more downturn to establish (test) the bottom. Inflation is up a bit, but the Fed is not behind the curve-they seem to have the controls well in hand. (Actually I wonder if they are over-doing it, some inflation is not bad and given that the internet and the B2B purchasing method will continue to drive production to the lowest cost producer-I'm a little more afraid of deflation and rising unemployment in unproductive countries) Therefore we are within 2-3 more hikes of the top (50-75 base points). To do nothing is crazy - you are screwed if it falls and you've got nothing helping you if it moves up (lose-lose). Only two reasonable choices are here - either sell it all and conserve cash since you feel market will continue to tank or you add to positions here (in either case you have a more balanced chance: lose - win) You could sell some and add to the best -(possible win-win), but invariably I find I sold the wrong ones and added to slow movers ! The ones you usually pick to sell are the dodgy risky ones - but they usually got hit first so they are low already and if there is a turnaround their beta always seems to turn out higher than the solid