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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (10366)	4/17/2000 7:01:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78525

Hi I2. Well,if the market had gone down another 10% or more today, I would've expected a third decline of at least 10% tomorrow, and so it would've been like '87, where, sitting in one's office at the end of the third day, kind of frozen like a deer caught by a car's headlights, one could think, gee just two or three more days like the last 3, and anyone with any money could buy the whole of GM, or LLY or IBM, etc. for mere pennies on the dollar. The stocks literally looked like they were going to zero. But as I recall, the carnage ended by the third day. Today I don't see any 'gifts'. I've added to my position in IDTC today - it's selling below what cash value might be if/when a deal with AT&T closes. Perhaps people are breathing a sigh of relief today. I know I am. I'd rather not have the market crash. I realize the Buffettologists and some value investors are digging in their heals in anticipation of their turn to get the perfect pitches they like. My experience with bear markets though is that everybody I see (including me) gets hurt. People with money either don't invest because the trend seems to be down (why buy today when stuff is cheaper tomorrow?) or if they buy, the stock(s) drop soon after and they bail, or if they buy after the bottom is hit, they take small profits in a bear rally & still miss reinvesting or something else happens or doesn't happen. The upshot is that when it's over people will say they were not satisfied or happy with they way they dealt with their being in the bear market. Even short sellers. Painful for everybody (98%). That's my opinion/experience anyway. If the market goes down a lot tomorrow, it will be imo, because people are using today's respite to lighten their positions or adjust their mutual funds. This could continue on a daily basis, exacerbated by the realization that the problem goes beyond "tax selling" - what the media/others reported/believed was a prime reason for the sell off. I don't recall, but would such a drawn out decline be more reminiscent of 1966? I believe so. Meanwhile, I believe the economy is moving along, people as of last week anyway -g-, still had money, bonds don't look so compelling as they did years ago when bond yields were higher, I don't see people putting funds into real estate ventures (spec. housing/partnerships) or oil and gas stuff. I'd say the stock market is still the place where people want to be. JMO, and I've been wrong many,many decades. What's your take on all that's been happening, I2?