To: Jenna who wrote (93815 ) 4/18/2000 6:01:00 AM From: lee kramer Respond to of 120523
Dortmunder and I have developed a routine, kinda like married couples. I roll out of bed, straggle into the big kitchen. He's drinking coffee, poring over his charts, planning his day's strategy. I say "Anthing look good? Are you going long or short today?" He grumbles, ignores me, eventually talks. "This is expiration week. Friday. I shall take this into account. However, all the put buyers and short sellers who scramble to get out of their positions in a roaring bull market may not do so this week. Consider: You've shorted a stock at 90 that's now 32. Are you in a rush to cover? Unlikely. Sure, you might want to take some profits off the side-board by covering, buying.Are you following me? Nod your head if you are so I shant think you're asleep." I nodded vigorously. "Sure, sure, I'm following you." I said quickly. "On the other hand, short term traders may want out, entirely out if it appears the market has paused in its downdraft...or if it continues to rally. The strategy is clear; remain short the weakest stock or stocks. They may bounce, but they shall liely return to their downward ways." "I understand what you're saying, I really do. But will you be buying anything?" He sipped, paused, replied "I may acquire a stock or two that declines this morning...a stock that had a sharp run up yesterday. Remember this; we are not in a new bull market, we remain in difficulty. Stock after stock had declined anywhere from 45-90%. It shall take a good deal of time for some of these stocks to bottom and resume a new up-trend. Those that remain in business of course. I've identified a bushelfull that simply have little capital remaining. These firms will file Chapter 11, or perhaps be acquired by other firms. And because their stock prices are so low, the acquire will set the terms of the deal...much to their benefit. I shall remain primarily on the short side, until the market indicates otherwise. If you must buy, buy the stock of a firm that is loaded with capital, a firm that is making money...a rather new concept in your country. But examine the chart first. Solid firms may remain solid, will likely remain in business...but their STOCK may continue to slide. And you are buying the stock, not the company. Are we finished? Any more questions? May I get back to my now cold coffee and charts? Yes, yes, of course. Thanks Dortmunder." "Indeed" he snapped.