To: Think4Yourself who wrote (64834 ) 4/17/2000 10:08:00 PM From: Think4Yourself Respond to of 95453
There is a very knowledgeable poster on Yahoo VPI thread who posted this today: M. L.'s views on natural gas by: danwilson_Yorkshire 4/17/00 3:50 pm Msg: 1956 of 1963 Comments from the Merrill Lynch report on the North American E & P Sector: "Our view with respect to $24/bbl WTI and the likelyhood of continued price strength are similar or our MER peers. Further, North American natural gas prices will probably register historic, de-regulated era prices because of poor production adds in North America, fuel switching, and a 1 TCF AGA storage decline." "We see North American E&P management teams being more conservative. Recent relative stock underperformance has drummed in the advantages of ongoing fiscal conservatism. That means that free cash flow will be used to reduce debt, repurchase shares or make small acquisitions." "North American E&P stock valuations are still at record lows, and most 'Street' analysts probably will need to revise estimates upward." "Fast cycle time projects to exploit under-utilized hydrocarbon resources are disappearing all over the world, not just in North America. But, the relative maturity of the U.S., as a producing province, ongoing industry downsizing, minimal new oilfield services technology gains, and inconsistent capital deployment will keep the N.A. natural gas market tight and somewhat insular, and world oil markets could register historically high prices because of more coherent OPEC and OECD nations with poor conventional production adds. Thus, prices could stay high despite the desire of oil people to spend more." NYMEX gas continuing to look very bullish. XTO and POG appear to be "on sale" today as these are my top "gas plays".