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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (34883)	4/18/2000 11:10:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

MH, >I'll be looking at 2003 for a top. Do you have any particular reasons? I'd be interested, if you want to lay them down. Tony

To: Pink Minion who wrote (34883)	4/18/2000 12:18:00 PM
From: dellman	Respond to of 70976

I tend to agree with you. Does everyone remember Brett Hodess with NationsBank Montgomery Securities? He correctly called the upswing in demand for semicon equip manufacturers in 1998. I have been trying to find information on what his view of the cycle has been lately. He said once lead times in orders start to shorten and plant utilization starts to drop, that is the time to sell. He says most analysts will at first rationalize these first declines as a healthy cooling of an overheated market, but he thinks it will actually be the beginning of overcapacity. That is why I think you are right with your 2003 prediction, because I find it hard to believe that the new capacity will not result in overcapacity before 2006.