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To: Mika Kukkanen who wrote (4244)	4/18/2000 6:02:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Mika, It does seem unlikely that GSM will be overlaid with cdmaOne, though the plan everywhere is to overlay with CDMA of a 3G type. The question was always the timing. The driver will be the need to provide a lot of WWeb access and about 100% of the population using cellphones. GPRS will help, but that won't last long. The cost of spectrum has bounced more than the Nasdaq [see the value of NextWave spectrum which went from $4.3bn to $1bn to maybe $7bn now]. But the latest spectrum auction in the UK has been a real eye-opener for people who were moaning about NextWave overbidding for C-Block spectrum. At 14 April, the bid total was about $32bn. That's about $1000 per capita [excluding a few young ones and old ones]. The cost of infrastructure is about the same. So spectrum is no longer a thing which can be wasted. It is as valuable as the electronic gizzards providing the service. TDMA systems including GSM are simply too wasteful of spectrum at prices like that. Nearly half the cost of minutes will be in spectrum. Therefore, there is going to be enormous pressure to maximize capacity per gizzard and per photon. That means CDMA and soon. Being a bit more precise, allow for marketing costs too. Systems will need to run at 80% of capacity rather than the common 25% or so. Companies which run at low usage are NOT going to be profitable. Companies which don't have their spectrum full of bits are not going to be profitable. Things are speeding up. GSM operators are not going to have the luxury of waiting around for 5 years to get CDMA into their spectrum. Their competitors will do it and take their customers. Roll on WWeb Armageddon. Maurice PS: Would people not bait Gus please. And Gus, it's minuscule, not miniscule [since we are doing spelling]. Getting angry and abusive really doesn't achieve anything folks.