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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (13344)	4/18/2000 3:06:00 PM
From: rsie	Respond to of 15132

great article by Fleckenstein on the home page for SI: "The bears are back. . . This morning Justin Mamis had a piece (again, for newbies, this is a service that I take) titled "The Death of Greed." I thought it was a worthwhile description of the current market environment in the bigger picture. I want to share that with readers as well: "The secular bull cycle dating from '82 is over - prosaic stocks at the breadth peak of April '98, the Nasdaq 'tulip' manics at the peaks formed over the past several weeks. We are 'officially' in a secular bear cycle - which means not just one bear market and 'poof! everything is all right again,' but a series of bears - which, in turn, means that something termite-like is beginning to undermine global markets, and the global economy, as well as the incipient domestic problems. Although made more difficult to contemplate because of the bifurcation, and thus perhaps each in its own way, this is going to be a long, slow process, the first leg of which is proving to be a lot sharper, steeper and persistent in the bursting of the mania than even we at our grumpiest ever had expected. "After the still absent but inevitable rebound, the subsequent leg down will be the opposite: slow, grinding, eroding. Meanwhile, the reversal from the April 4 midday low flopped after reaching its first resistance area (while leaving us expecting something more), so that everyone, including us, is now looking for a bigger, grander climax. . . but it does not necessarily need to culminate that convenient way - should, but doesn't need to. "Yes, we're getting to an oversold extreme nearly as deep as August-October '98, but that was a stage in the bull cycle: This has become the inverse, an underlying bear trend - 'buy the dip' is the drained but still hopeful plea of the aged: 'Can't we get it up one more time.' 'Sell rallies' is the fresh cry: too much resistance, too many sellers, sit overhead. . . indeed, that supply appears so alluring, like a siren's song, that we mistakenly had expected it to be attacked already. Recoveries will fail, as long-term moving average lines roll over and turn down." Justin goes on to say in this week's letter that he thought the best thing that could happen for the market would be a huge down opening, and that he believes that this particular slide can't end on an up opening. He's also noted that every morning the S&P futures are up, indicating the eagerness that people have to buy every dip. I have long said that it would be impossible to be fully invested and buy the dip, but that is what has gone on via borrowing against shares. One of these days the ability to do that will cease to exist. " It appears that the mentioned people agree with Bob's theory about the secular Bear....Rich