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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (47010)	4/18/2000 7:04:00 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

It looked like the positive action spread out a little today. Maybe we have to wait for a new catalyst, as from what I see, the confidence appears to be returning to momentum stocks. Took a little off the table this afternoon, selling a minor position in a biotech that got knocked down by what I suspect was margin call related sales early Monday. From what I saw during the past three days, the stocks at the most extreme upside valuations in Biotech and Semiconductors took the worst damage up to Friday, then bounced the most Monday PM/Tuesday. The late bloomers in the sector also got hit harder than stocks that had time to adjust to their new altitude. Of course, this is all based on watching a very small portion of the market, and may not extrapolate to future downswings. One thing that does have my attention, is the approach of 6% on the 30yr bond. Rising interest rates won't help my defensive stocks much. Probably won't help any stocks much.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (47010)	4/21/2000 1:41:00 PM
From: GuitarMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I don't know much about TA, but I subscribe to a service that has issued warning: The Dow has me somewhat worried, longer term. Look at the Weekly Chart - you can see that we may be on the backside of a new diamond formation in this timeframe. If so - we could see a really big crash in about 6 weeks. For now, I would just keep my eyes open for signs of severe weakness. signalwatch.com And, the story is - Expanding Triangles (or, Broadening formations). Let me quote a few lines from Edwards & MaGee, the bible of technical patterns, "... the Broadening formation may be said to suggest a market lacking intelligent sponsorship and out of control - a situation, usually, in which the public is excitedly committed and which is being whipped around by wild rumors... the fact that chart pictures of this type make their appearance, as a rule, only at the end of in the final phases of a long Bull Market lends credence to them." If you look at the 60 Minute Chart, you see an Expanding Triangle. Look at the Weekly Chart - same thing. Is this telling us something? Is the market just warming up for a REALLY BIG meltdown? Not sure. What I CAN do is tell you where I think the levels are to indicate that either a recover or new sell-off is beginning, so let's discuss that subject. from Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 6th edition, page 169. What are your thoughts ?