To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (51690 ) 4/18/2000 3:06:00 PM From: Alex Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116764
Fair use etc....Gold bug worries Rumours of a gold sell-off by the Swiss and French governments is worrying the market, reports the BBC's Rodney Smith. It's not true, of course, but that is how some in the gold and precious metals market interpret the Swiss legislation that will allow them to sell half the national vault of 3,000 tonnes. Among them, the articulate, vocal and persuasive Frank Lucas at Loeb Aron is sure that the Swiss move will depress the gold price if only because the French will be unable to resist front-loading - selling into the market ahead of any prospective Swiss sale. The Swiss sale may be priced in - a French sale is not. Transparency Not everybody likes government gold auctions Mr Lucas is a fairly rare animal in the precious metals market, a trader who applauds the transparency of the Bank of England's quarterly gold auctions. "At least you can see what happens," he says. There are plenty others who think the Bank naive to auction the metal; they think it could get better money if it sold the gold quietly through the market. Be that as it may, any given volume of metal coming onto the market is likely eventually to have much the same effect on the price, wherever or however it comes. Uncertainty But back to the Swiss - and the French. The Loeb Aron view is that they will sell through the market, causing havoc and uncertainty. But the French can't sell much, you say, they signed the Washington Accord, that smart little stitch-up late last year when the World Gold Council persuaded the US Administration that American gold miners would sink if the European central banks flogged off gold left right and centre. The answer to that, of course, is that we are all surrounded by limits and guidelines - like motorway speed limits - but we don't always stick to them. Who would know if the French sold surreptitiously? (Possibly the US Treasury). And what would/could anyone do? So the Swiss will sell gold, and other Europeans (and others) may use the opportunity to disguise sales of their own. So far, the price has stood up very well - $2 dip in London and Europe, similar movement on Comex in New York. Longer term? There's a lot of gold out there, in spite of some bullion enthusiasts' anxieties about possible huge hedge overhangs. There are also a lot of very nervous equity investors whose water tells them an even bigger stock correction is coming. The two events, the gold sales and the correction, just might coincide - when it just might be a good thing to be holding gold. news.bbc.co.uk