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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clean who wrote (4054)	4/18/2000 6:36:00 PM
From: Jim Oravetz	Respond to of 5390

PHOENIX--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 18, 2000--The semiconductor industry is extremely interested in the forecast for cellular phones. Some sources estimate that the cellular phone market may exceed one billion units by 2002. If so, billions of ICs would be needed. But, is the cellular phone market that big. In a recently published Snapshot Study, Cellular Phones: Ringing in Growth, Semico Research Corp. presents a much more conservative forecast. Semico believes that the market for cellular phone handsets will be less than 500 million units by 2004. There are three critical elements that must be addressed to forecast the growth of cellular phones: the actual number of cellular subscribers, the active life of a cellular phone, and the level of inventory that cellular service suppliers will maintain. Can a worldwide population of 6 billion people utilize or afford one billion cellular phones? Do the currently projected growth rates also include a hidden assumption that the definition of a "cellular subscriber" is somehow being changed? Cellular Phones: Ringing in Growth analyzes cellular phone penetration rates by geographic region and answers these questions. The implications of world politics are key to the cellular phone market. Cellular Phones: Ringing in Growth reviews the situation in China. Why has the Qualcomm rollout been suspended? Will cellular phones remain in use until subscribers can gain a significant increase in services or performance, or will cellular phones become a disposable product that is tossed away as soon as a new service carrier has a better offer? Replacement rates directly affect cellular phone handset forecasts. Cellular Phones: Ringing in Growth provides assumptions for replacement rates. Cellular service suppliers have been willing to maintain levels of inventory that would be considered excessive in other industries. This inventory represents units that are in transit or that are required for local inventory in order to insure immediate delivery in geographic areas with rapidly expanding services. Semico believes that inventory will increase from 148 million units in 1999 to peak of just over 250 million units in 2002. Cellular Phones: Ringing in Growth discusses the impact of this peak. Cellular Phones: Ringing in Growth is available for immediate shipment. The list price is $995. Semico Research Corp. is a leader in providing semiconductor market research and custom consulting. Other products and services are available at the Semico Web site, www.semico.com. Jim