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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (79849)	4/18/2000 4:47:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

..and, not to be unkind, but you should start a business as a stockbroker. Anyone able to mouth the tenets of the EMH while speculating on index options seems cut out for it. -mb

To: BGR who wrote (79849)	4/18/2000 6:30:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

BGR, I play the horses casually because the edge that I can attain and the number of bettable situations I can find aren't large enough to make anywhere near what I make working. If I find something worthwhile on a Saturday or Sunday when I have nothing better to do I wager. The expectation is about -15% on win bets due to the track take and breakage. The market (odds in this case) are quite efficient most of the time - as is the stock market. It isn't often that I can find a betting error large enough to give me a margin of safety to both overcome the -15% and my own occasional errors in judgement. I have found it useful to specialize. I bet almost exclusively on high quality races on the dirt. One might say that I'm doing the same thing as specializing in an industry or two so that my understanding of the situation is better than average. It's very tough and no way to make a living. You have to endure long losing streaks because it's a low probability sport. Most of the value bets are not on the horse most likely to win the race. The best bets are on longer shots that the public is overlooking. Some choose to do it anyway because of the complete financial independence. The vast majority that try fail. Wayne