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To: Dealer who wrote (14931)4/18/2000 9:03:00 PM
From: Ex-INTCfan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
Dealer,

I went thru the entire downturn without selling a position. How does one know that "this is the time we will have a big correction?" The odds always are against it. How many 10% pullbacks turn into 34% pullbacks? Not many. So when you are down 10%, the odds are that you will go back up, not down, so why sell? The same could be said at 20% and 30%. A buy and hold strategy on balance makes the most sense to me, coupled with selling calls occasionally to raise cash for the inevitable downturns, as V recommends.

I think the only thing I am sorry about is at an individual stock level. I had some stocks that looked to be reaching short-term peaks, based on charts, and I held them. (I'm thinking particularly about SCH, AMZN, and CMB. AMZN is the one that bothers me the most, because I bought it more as a trade than an investment. The other two are investments for the long haul.)

It seems to me that the net present value of selling eveything every time there is a downturn is negative. Too many headfakes. I'm sure there are some who feel superior because they sold before the downturn, (or before it became a bloodbath), but I will believe it was luck or panic unless I hear some sound evidence to the contrary.

INTCfan



To: Dealer who wrote (14931)4/19/2000 2:20:00 AM
From: she_x  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 35685
 
If anyone came through this last week feeling great about taking money off the table I would
love for them to share their strategy


i took money off the table this past week, not because of the downturn, because they were planned sales. sold CPQ @30 , a high for them, and AMZN, because i wanted to move it into higher techs. i am pretty disciplined about skimming the cream off my stocks after they've shown a good profit and are at highs. i don't try to aim for the absolute highs close works for me and then i buy whatever's on the wishlist with the profits whenever we get a downturn like last week. i bought GMST, BVSN, RMBS, SEBL, CIEN, BRCM and JDSU this past week. for my strategy, this year has been excellent. we hit really high highs and really low lows. usually this is spread out through the year but this year has played out rather quickly. i still feel we will get a retest of lows this week probably thursday. i think i'll probably just sit tight with what i have for right now though. i would never consider selling into a downturn. all i have to do is think of the tax consequences, most of my stocks have a very low basis and i would lose more in taxes than i would value in a downturn. i don't use margin or a broker either which means i have total control over when i sell. when i started using clearstation years ago i started watching the corestaffs portfolios, mainly kensey and mystifier's. we owned pretty much the same stocks and amounts and our portfolios would usually be neck and neck. whenever we would head for a downturn they would sell into it and then try to buy back low. i wouldn't just to see if it made any difference. well i usually came out ahead to my surprise, although it never did take them too long to make it back. i learned a lot from watching this and it gave me even more incentive to buy and hold long. not to mention how much more stress-free this type of investing is. i know my type of investing is different from most on the porch and this probably won't help anyone much. just thought i'd add my $.02 since you asked. she