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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (64914)4/18/2000 9:58:00 PM
From: Wowzer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Now we see how the market reacts tomorrow to these earnings. A normal rational investor would assume a positive reaction. However, this is Wall Street we are talking about and if EOG can't hold a gain by the end of the day....

On the Yahoo RIG message board oilforever came up with an interesting observation. Not that any of us didn't know the API data is bunch of shit anyway....

API and Revised Crude Stocks
by: oilforever (33/Orange County, CA)
4/18/00 8:11 pm
Msg: 13226 of 13227
I guess, one should be careful when API reports 6.6 M increase in crude stocks.
Go and check with crude stocks with the previous week's number
.
Courtesy of Joe's numbers here is what we see in the last 7 weeks:

Joe reported 284.1 M crude stocks on 2/29/00.

In the next seven weeks the API reported crude change was (+7.2, -3.6, +4.7, -1.2, +4.6, +4.2, +6.6).
The "total" of "change"s in this period from 2/29/00 is 22.5 M .

This weeks's reported crude stock is 303.6 M.

Well, the difference from 2/2/9/00 is 19.5 M.

API is overestimating the crude stocks thus showing increased crude built. And, in the next report API revises DOWN
previous week's crude stoks, thus increasing the "crude built" of current week (as in the case of this week). Well, this reduces
the crude built in the previous week.

But, who cares for the past week. The crude built is "larger than expected" for the current week (which will be most likely
revised down in next week's report.)



To: Think4Yourself who wrote (64914)4/18/2000 10:00:00 PM
From: jim_p  Respond to of 95453
 
At $24.00 per share, that works out to be a little over 4 times annualized first quarters cash flow. Next quarter will be better due to higher NG prices. A company like EOG should sell for at least 5-6 times cash flow or $28-34.00 per share. I sold most of mine around $24.00, but I still have a core position.

Jim



To: Think4Yourself who wrote (64914)4/18/2000 10:12:00 PM
From: Razorbak  Respond to of 95453
 
EOG Earnings

John:

If I recall correctly, analysts' estimates are usually for operating income before extraordinary items, since they have no way of predicting extraordinary items. If you exclude the $18.2MM after tax gain from the sale of the Enron Corp options, then EOG generated $20.6MM of operating income before the options sale (an extraordinary item). That equates to $0.18/share, which is below the $0.23/share average estimate (presumably First Call). Looked at from this perspective, EOG appears to have underperformed.

That's the way I see it at least. Have I missed something in my analysis?

Razor