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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amy J who wrote (102636)	4/19/2000 10:08:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 186894

Amy, RE: I have confidence in Intel - in their future launches, new fabs (albeit scrambling), Intel Capital, etc.) And there's nothing wrong with that attitude for sure. The problem I have is that the stock's price already reflects that attitude. Thus, if the company performs well, the upside is limited. If the company does not perform well, either through missed execution (it's own fault) or because of market factors (not mgmt's fault), you lose. Way too much risk for a limited reward, at least IMO.

To: Amy J who wrote (102636)	4/19/2000 1:54:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

And, moving forward, this is where you and I probably differ in opinion: I have confidence in Intel - in their future launches, new fabs (albeit scrambling), Intel Capital, etc.) Amy J, Why do you feel that way? Companies like people tend to move in cycles.....clearly Intel is in a down cycle. Cycles tend to last for quite some time....months vs weeks or days. What do you see happening to change the current Intel cycle? ted

To: Amy J who wrote (102636)	4/19/2000 3:18:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Respond to of 186894

Amy, I have confidence in Intel, too. If the price of the stock were different, I'd be long stock, not puts. However, INTC is at 50x earnings and 14x sales, while IABG revenues have been stagnant (0%-3% YOY) for three straight quarters now. Check my post; appreciating seasonality, I posted YOY growth numbers. I have to agree with Tad LaFountain on the stock: it's very fully valued. I think he estimated PV of INTC at $50ish; I don't disagree much. And thanks for the kind words. Aside from trying to be polite, I don't gloat when stocks drop because, as a rule, I'm selling puts on the way down as overvaluations become less extreme. And Mary wonders how I make money... -g-, -mb