To: Bosco who wrote (5401 ) 4/19/2000 11:05:00 AM From: telecomguy Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 14638
It appears LU's headline numbers screaming 40%+ profit increase is NOT as good an indication of their performance. This is NOT a sign of a healthy company. Their revenue is NOT growing on a year-to-year basis. 4.6% growth in revenue from December 31,1998 (full 15 months ago) is PATHETIC especially when you consider that the hot Optoelectronics and Access industry is growing leaps and bounds. I haven?t done the math but I suspect if you exclude the non-core divisions like Opto & Access (modems, etc.), LU?s revenue growth may not have grown AT ALL in 15 months. What does that tell you about the health of a company when all other vendors in this space are growing at 20%+ in revenue? See my analysis I posted on Lucent thread and tell me what you guys think. My conclusion is that their core Carrier Networking business is still suffering and that they have NOT caught up to NT implying NT is still making large inroad into LU's traditional Telco/Carrier market. (unless of course the whole Carrier space is contracting which I hardly doubt!) Guys, look at the numbers closer and you will see that almost ALL of their profit increase from last year's Q2 came from; 1) REDUCTION in R&D 2) Increase in non-operating income (whatever they are) So if you look at their Operating Income BEFORE R&D, it was 2.287 billion verus 2.186 billion in 1999. This is only 4.6 % INCREASE in Operating Income. Not much of an improvement. So what I read into this is that aside from huge growth in Optoelectronics division, LU is still continuing to have problems growing their top line and OPERATING income from 1999. Also, another way to look at their revenue growth shows that it is definitely slowing down compare to their growth rates in 1999 and prior; Q1 ending December 31,1998 was around 9.8 billion Q2 endign March 31,2000 was 10.256 billion. So in 15 months, LU has grown their top line revenue by 4.65% which is an annualized rate of 3.72% growth in REVENUE. Am I missing something here or do the LU numbers look better than they actually are according to my quick analysis? Telecomguy For Three Months Ended 03/31/00 03/31/00 (a) 03/31/99 (b) Change (c) Revenues 10,256 10,256 8,783 16.8% Costs 5,939 5,939 4,546 30.6% Gross Margin 4,317 4,317 4,237 1.9% Selling, General and Administrative 2,030 2,030 2,051 (1.0)% Research and Development 1,110 1,099 1,231 (10.7)% Total Operating Expenses 3,140 3,129 3,282 (4.7)% Operating Income 1,177 1,188 955 24.4%