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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: telecomguy who wrote (14427)	4/19/2000 11:42:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

telecommguy, you should very well know that historically the Q1 numbers have carried a greater weight of the year's total revenues for LU. One of the efforts going on within LU is to smooth out revenue numbers over the entire year more evenly. Projections of 20% growth for the next 2 quarters indicate that total revenues for the year will exceed 44 billion. Not too shabby given the slow start. tp

To: telecomguy who wrote (14427)	4/19/2000 11:58:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 21876

TG, Where do I start? Are you actually John Roth posting incognito? Addressing your points: 1. Considerable R&D expenses for customer specific development have been reclassified as COGS as of FY00, so your comparison to FY99 before R&D is seriously flawed. 2. GM was certainly compressed by the ramp of new optical products and new plant build-outs in opto and fiber. Even the bears on the street expect a strong rebound in Q3. 3. Given 18% growth overall and 26% growth in on-going operations, how does your flawed analysis of LU's earnings tell you that LU is having problems growing their top line? In fact, Wireless grew over 50% YoY (30%+ over the last 4Q's, a more accurate measure), Optical equipment grew over 50%, Data networking beat plan by 40% and posted 80% YoY growth. Fiber optic cable grew 80%. Opto-electronics grew 80%. Semiconductors grew nearly 30%. Seems like pretty good top-line growth to me. 4. Why would you compare quarterly results from two different quarters 15 months apart, given seasonality? The YoY compare is from a quarter that had 35% YoY growth from 1998 - 18% is impressive and 400bps higher than the highest estimate on the street. Look at total revenue growth over the last 4 quarters: about 16% as reported, and about 17% excluding divested businesses. BTW Using your method, if you compare NT's March 99 with its December 97 including Bay's revenues, its growth was negative 21%, an annualized rate of -16%.