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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kashish King who wrote (34183)	4/19/2000 11:00:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

The trouble is that CSCO is widely believed to be priced for perfection for the next 10 years or more. Really. It is? Widely believed? Is that why the analysts all have buy or strong buy ratings on this? 10 years. Chambers is quoted as saying CSCO will be generating 50B in revenues by 2003. They are already at a $20B run rate or close to it. The point is.. and it's a valid discussion.. does one believe that CSCO can succeed in penetrating the trillion dollar service provider infrastructure space (note that most countries haven't begun to deploy the internet yet). If you don't believe they can and that they are only capable of generating $30B in revenues say 5 years out then you're right. However, if you believe that CSCO can execute (which many apparently do) then your estimations are very low. Finally, if you still think CSCO is a router company than you need to do more homework. Routers are an important part of the business buy I'd be surprised if even 40% of revenue came from them given Switches, DSLAM's, headends, ATM, Optics, services, etc.. So, it boils down to what one believes. I think however you should consider a bit more DD on CSCO's objectives and past execution. OG