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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (34908)	4/19/2000 12:34:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Respond to of 70976

Lam Research had dropped a bunch of market share globally during the last downturn, so they're scrambling now to get that back. (They cut their workforce over 74% during the last downturn, for example. Hard to build a business like that!) Bagley's a cagey character, and I think he understands the CMP phenomenon quite well. (He's ex-AMAT, for those who don't know; LAM = Left Applied Materials. <g>) He also knows exactly where and how AMAT would be hurting, and could capitalize on that. So yes, some of the recent gains are undoubtedly at AMAT's expense. Also, consider: When you own the majority of the market and somebody starts making market share gains, where's that gonna come from? Lam's stock has been doing well, as have many of the other semi-equips. Novellus is a fine example. However, none of them have reached the financial market status of AMAT, so it's my opinion that they're riskier stocks. With bigger rewards, potentially, on the up-tick. And with stock-picking more prevalent today, I think we'll see great volatility in some of these valuations. Also, it'll depend on who gets in with the next great technical announcements on the 300mm front; any bets? Mitch