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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Star who wrote (34919)	4/19/2000 2:36:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>I wouldn't cavalierly expect there MUST be a overcapacity situation develop sometime in the proposed timeframe. The last overshooot was a result of countries, not companies, going after market entry and then market share at all costs, hang the consequences.<< And the evidence that such wars will never happen again is? Give us a year or two of stable or rising chip prices and I'll bet you see a whole new round of countries declaring it a "strategic market" that they absolutely must enter. Malaysia? China? South Africa? I don't know, but if you make the pot big enough someone will try to grab it. Katherine

To: Lone Star who wrote (34919)	4/19/2000 5:07:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Respond to of 70976

Good points, Lone Star. I'd rather the boom-and-bust cycle end, or at least get less dramatic. However, as you point out, it's a war out there, and I haven't seen Korea or Taiwan capitulate recently. And Germany is certainly making an entry, with a 20 year plan to make Dresden larger than Silicon Valley in output. I'm pleased to see that Korea will require companies to stand on sound business fundamentals, but if anything, that'll just make these firms tougher. I would consider Samsung to be an example in this sense. These firms could actually get much stronger once they shed their "be all things" mentality and really focus! In my dealings with Samsung Austin Semiconductor I've seen just this sort of mindset. And the Koreans are very quick studies, it appears. So WW III is really WW II, fought in the fab bays rather than the trenches! <grin> I still don't understand all that having a big foundry presence will change in the semiconductor industry. Clearly we're going to get to see what Really Happens once Taiwan, Inc. gets them all going! As for caution, wave enough (virtual) money in somebody's face and they'll always toss caution out the window. At least that's my (admittedly cynical) take on that.... Mitch