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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65009)	4/19/2000 5:03:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

"Q" - did someone slip you a "gasaholic" pill (VBG) ? ...we all gotta march to our own drummers ~ Drillers right here are simply at the single best risk to reward; sweetspot point of any subsector niche at any point of the cycle. Another real big - simple clue - "Q" ; for crying out loud - just look at the % upside remaining to analysts present price targets ! Drillers are near doubles - E&P's not even close - E&P's are much closer to normalized valuation metrics than the drillers are. Look at that last chart link - the Trend is your friend (VBG) ! PS - regarding MDR: RISK can never be taken out of the equation; there is no final "all clear" sign on MDR. IF you wake up in 3-4 days and the court rules the wrong way; you may be leveraged to a 25% blowoff as Institutions just dump to get out of deadmoney (not that MDR goes Broke) - but, there would be an immediate flight out of the deadmoney cement overshoes that a simple court ruling the wrong way creates in MDR. Imho, certainly a great value play as a small part of a basket. "Calls" may be the smart way to play the "risk" imho, nearterm we will know - buy some calls and limit the risk and eat it, or hit a homerun while minimizing your risk and buy the common on the news... just my opinion. In this point of the Oilpatch cycle; with so many protecting such substantial profits; I dont see the attraction of high risk plays - none at all. The low risk names have 30-50% upside, why take risk here ? Bullsky - shallow water GOM is THE place that is going to be "WHITE HOT" - land is allready cookin - sure its going to get better, but the upside is in GOM service & drilling. Hint - who has the most harsh environment & deep water premium Jack Ups - THAT is THE play - period. (along with FLC - which is not the answer; but they have the most coldstacked rigs to bring to market at peak cycle dayrates). I'd also look at who has newbuilds coming online here...