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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (47370)	4/19/2000 8:11:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby: "while b has mauled former bear markets, and he may do better than most managers this time also" You do know that the $40 bil in equities make up less than a 1/3 of BRK's $131 bil in assets, right? Throw in the $34 bil in cash and bonds, and you're still only around 1/2. The rest is all wholly owned operating subs. BRK generated 60% of total sales (including those from investment gains) last year from its wholly owned operating insurance subs! Insurance is coming off the bottom of the worst insurance cycle since 1982 - the last time BRK sported the same price/book it did in March. "BRKB chart is screaming short me." Dennis and I had this conversation back in the $40s and OJ and I have chated about it at lower prices as well. I'm a contrarion as you probably figured out, so short away. You do it low enough, I'll be buying the shares from you :) Bobby, read this if you think Buffett is a "bull": fortune.com If you're wondering how accurate the above is, see what he had to say when "Equities Are Dead" 20 years ago: forbes.com And here's what he had to say in 1969 before the worst bear market since 1929-32: "I am out of step with present conditions. When the game is no longer played your way, it is only human to say the new approach is all wrong, bound to lead to trouble, and so on. On one point, however, I am clear. I will not abandon a previous approach whose logic I understand ( although I find it difficult to apply ) even though it may mean foregoing large, and apparently easy, profits to embrace an approach which I don't fully understand, have not practiced successfully, and which possibly could lead to substantial permanent loss of capital."