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Technology Stocks : Computer Associates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dinesh who wrote (4195)	4/20/2000 5:40:00 PM
From: Crystal ball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5232

Thanx. Its always sad when small minds are quick to judge. CA and its Neugents, I think are more critical than Unicenter TNG. For example, American Mobile does the first wireless data network company through CA's Unicenter TNG. CA also is behind Microsoft's MS CE for the new pocket rockets and wireless handhelds. The issue is the difference that most people miss between open architecture of Computer Associates TNG and Neugents and Open Source. Open Source is beyond freeware, and shareware. It allows for development by many more programmers and therefore moer applications and archectures and network systems built on it. Thatis why I think that linux and Apache will eventually dominate, first replacing, or absorbing the multiple variations of Unix, and then most likely knocking out the rest, including NT, despite Microsoft getting many years of revenue. The key here is the difference between CDMA (of Qualcomm QCOM) and the Palm operating system (COMS, PALM) and that of Nokia, and the (MOT) motorola based products and MS versions of CE. All this data, all this information, all this knowledge, and who can "know it all" or manage it all...that is where Neugents comes in. Neural Networks, like the human brain, can learn, can get smarter....ever sit at a traffic red light at midnight with no cars and ask yourself, "why can't I just go anyway, there are no other cars, why isn't the traffic light smart enough to know this and give me a green light?" And so it will go with data mining, and with Network "mining" and "managing" of data and info, and there you are Neugents, by Computer Associates and its 18,000 employees for all the support we need. Add to this framework the infrastructure of Novell (NOVL) and SunMicroSystems (SUNW) or IBM, and Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC) and AMD and the rest, and realize its all connected, and we really have something, yeah, Neugents and the fact the P/E is under $40 is enough of a reason these days for me to invest in CA. Thanx for the polite reminder that this is not a classroom, but a chat room. I note CA did okay today up 4.2% which is a lot in these volatile days. I am, Truly your$, -Crytal Ball

To: Dinesh who wrote (4195)	4/21/2000 4:51:00 AM
From: Edwarda	Respond to of 5232

Dinesh, you are far from alone in suffering on CA in the past and the recent past. <VBG> My point was that it is irresponsible to pull a price target for a stock out of the air and to answer that it is based on neugents and a P/E of less than 40 with no further supporting commentary when questioned. I continue to believe that the fourth quarter is likely to hold a positive surprise, which the analyst at SoundView also suggests in his estimate for fiscal 2000. As to valuation, I think that $65 looks like a reasonable target price looking at discounted cash flow as well as awarding a multiple with a slight premium to the 15% five-year earnings growth rate to fiscal 2001 earnings of $3.90 per share.