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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (106908)	4/20/2000 12:33:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575025

Ted, <last year when I suggested to the Intel longs that Intel may have overpaid for DSP and Level One, their response was that Intel was becoming another CSCO and expected great things to happen to Intel's revenue stream due to these acquisitions> If you are talking about what you saw on the Intel thread then I say there ain't a single networking expert who posts on that thread. <So for the long term holders the fact that these acquisitions may prove not to be beneficial will come as shock. And you have to remember with Intel, there are a lot of long term holders.> Intel is a strong company with a solid balance sheet. A "true" long term holder who has been dollar cost averaging into the stock will mostly likely have excellent long term returns. <At some point there may be an exodus out of the stock.....something like what happened to Dell last year.> I think the first real signs of exodus may showup after Q2 earnings (I think Intel has a challenge on its hand trying to live up to its current Q2 forecast). If they miss, it would be 5th or 6th quarter in a row Intel's guidance would be wrong (core business excluding investment sales). It will probably get significantly worse in Q3. And, if Wilamette does not ship millions of units in Q4, I think Q4 will be Intel's worst quarter measured in terms of delta to expectations. IMHO, the first quarter Intel is most likely live upto expectation should be Q1 2001. Barring any analyst related pump-and-dump action, investing in Intel until Wilamette ships in volume is probably a bad idea. Chuck