To: Mike Buckley who wrote (23107 ) 4/20/2000 7:10:00 AM From: erickerickson Respond to of 54805
Would I buy now? Not without a lot more convincing evidence that they were growing. When I was looking at them, sales were not increasing fast enough to be seriously interested. in retrospect, I'm not even sure I was looking at Q/Q sales as a major factor. ICGN was always going to be big, it was never actually growing quickly. Furthermore, the pain factor wasn't high enough. Although the technology promised better air conditioning, there wasn't enough pain in using the current technology to cause folks to switch to a newer, unproven system. In the tech stocks we follow, pain grows quickly, forcing some to reach for a solution that "isn't entirely there yet". I don't see anything similar in air conditioning. Sure, there are issues with molds and dampness that the ICGN product had a leg up on. But, these problems have already been solved. Albeit, ICGNs solution promised to be cheaper, but that isn't enough pain. It's long-term viability wasn't proven to the market's satisfaction. What I'm getting to is that the early adopters didn't have sufficient motivation to adopt this new solution that outweighed the risk. The added expense of using the tried-and-true solutions was 1> minimal compared to the initial investment and 2> much smaller than swapping out a major air conditioning unit after it had been installed. For me, it is a case of how GG principles could be applied to raise warning flags. The problems I mentioned would have already been overcome if the Q/Q sales figures were going through the roof. That is, enough folks would have installed these units to convince the rest of the customers that the technology had enough advantages. Until that point, it was too early. One difference between this kind of industry and tech is that the cycle is much longer and going after shiny pebbles isn't worth it. Whereas in tech you can miss out on major moves by being off a quarter or two (and thus, I think, the attraction some of us have for shiny pebbles), in capital equipment circles you might be able to miss by a year or more and still not miss out on too much. Anyway, enough alright already Erick