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Non-Tech : Auric Goldfinger's Short List -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jbe who wrote (5070)	4/20/2000 3:19:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 19428

If you want to bet against the satellite TV players based on the belief you can forecast the industry a few years out, go for it. That's what makes the market. You are right that a takeover is always a possibility as the industry consolidates under debt pressures. Suppose WMT decides it wants to get into the broadcasting business and buys DISH tomorrow for $80 per share? Not beyond the realm of possibility since WMT could market the hell out of their products to millions of households instantly. My point is that shorting a POS like INSW (which I covered at 40% of the price I shorted it) is a cakewalk compared to taking on a high revenue player with institutional support. I don't think the risk reward calculation adds up. Roger Babb's shorting thread used to be the most popular on SI. But they went after a number of high growth, high sales plays with questionable balance sheets that are still around and kicking today (like BFT). Some like CTXS skyrocketed. Many of the regulars drifted away after that. Go for the weak and the wounded as they fall out of the herd. Much easier than trying to bring down the big elephants, IMHO. Good luck.