Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/20/2000 1:54:00 PM
From: shasta23	Respond to of 99985

TheKelster! A dark message...maybe true! I just don't know but noticed how doom swung back to "sunny days are here again" back to "slight doom" just after one down day. I think as long as the emotions run that high we will see volatility and might not see a bottom which would for me preferably come with reduce volatility and a base. BTW did you work in a past live for the Inquisition ;-)) ... real dark stuff. Stefan, always enjoying your posts on the daytrading thread

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/20/2000 4:23:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

TheKelster: Your post made the "Cool Posts" list today as well. Check the SI Home Page "The bottom"...congrats! Regards, LG

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/21/2000 2:51:00 AM
From: jack bittner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

do you have an opinion on how deep the the major liquidation will take the market. down 20%? 50%? more? once it occurs will the market ever come back to today's levels? in your opinion, if it does ever come back, will it take 5 years? 10 years? More? Less? is your criterion that tech companies have to go from 100 times earnings to 12x, 25x?

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/21/2000 11:59:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

re: "rah rah happy days are here again" what you be smokin', man? whose rose colored glasses are being passed around? I dont have any idea where you come up with even the detection of such a flip-flop in sentiment after one week... the vast majority of the 50-75 people whose posts I read are somewhat disillusioned, drained, cut down, and searching for stability in the major indexes (primarily NAZ)... I cannot point to a single person who has flipped back to excited in rah-rah fashion just which rose-colored pool are you directing your attention to???????? this board is horribly mislabeled should be something like: "Gloomy Posterboys" / Jim Willie

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/22/2000 12:15:00 AM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Anymore Thread Pessimism And.. The Players will be gone - We're pretty much there, just have to get everyone over the shell shock, JMO.. >><<

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/22/2000 10:34:00 AM
From: blackcash	Respond to of 99985

...i have to disagree on one point.....we have been through 2 very hard internet corrections in past 3 years....it seems to me i hear the same stuff evrytime..this is the end ..the internet is dead...YHOO will carry valuation similiar to PG and isnt worth 10 bucks...etc ....each correction has laid to rest many investors and stocks(ie B-C companies) ...i see this as an ABSOLUTE buying opportunity in a more narrow group of stocks which WILL bounce back(next 12 months) AND reach NEW highs. ..this is downturn in an INTACT BULLMARKET...the scary thing is CAN YOU IMAGINE THE SIZE OF THE NEXT RALLY which we will bounce off of probably in NOV- JAN. ...the VOLITILITY HAS JUST BEGUN morbidly yours

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/22/2000 1:58:00 PM
From: RDH	Respond to of 99985

We have lately seen hints of the volatility that will soon become an integral part of the stock market of the next few years (and maybe longer). As the growth of the internet continues and becomes more linked with trading, as commissions decrease (and perhaps almost disappear in some instances) and day traders become more numerous and aggressive, as momentum investing continues its long term trend of increasing in popularity, as daily volumes continue rising and valuations of awesome powerhouse companies like Cisco and Oracle reach higher and create even greater controversy about being justifiable, there will be more weekly, daily and ultimately hourly wide swings up and down. Expect to see option volume continue to increase and many institutional investors show less evidence of interest in value stocks or long term patience-oriented buy and hold strategies. We have seen relatively calm seas in the late nineties. Time to prepare for choppy waters. RDH.

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/22/2000 5:25:00 PM
From: Keith A Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Anyone who claims to know whether or not a bottom has been made and/or top is just guessing. The support for this market is beginning to show. I believe more will now rest with macro-economic factors and Fed watching than anything Bulls or Bears alike will tout. My strategy is simple: pick the winners (ie. where earnings and top-line growth are for real)

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/22/2000 8:54:00 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The drop-off in trading volume shows that a lot of "players" have been "removed." This is completely "at odds" with your non-scientific sample. I have been part of the reduction in trading volume. Two weeks ago, when one of my "favorite" stocks took a big (unexplained) dip, I would be in there immediately buying a little. Now, I am too scared to do it. Jon.

To: TheKelster who wrote (47420)	4/22/2000 11:49:00 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I averaged down on many occasions in the past 20 years and they turned to be huge winners. Being able to average down means there are spare cash available in the accounts, unlike the ones who recently got margin calls. Contrary to your perception, there are many "experts" who have been shouting "the bottom is not here ... there will be a double bottom ... etc". All this is healthy and will be the driving force of an even greater momentum rise in share prices. As for myself, I am now 90% invested, and will slowly dip into margin account in the next three weeks. As I see it, why bother nickle and dime at near the market bottom? In the worst case, there may be several doldrum months that will bring out doubts. This inflation is real and has been happening for the last 4 years, and will continue. Furthermore, I have always wondered where the government has been getting the economic numbers. I cannot correlate those low inflation numbers (cpi, ppi, etc) with actual cost of living (housing, food, transportation, etc) in most major cities. Sure, there are large farm belt areas that can support the government figures, but not in most major cities, and definitely not so where the economies are booming. Two years ago, after the Rubin-Greenspan saved the world from a deepening economic crisis by lowering all the lending rates, I posted a comment to bring out the welcome mat for powerful inflationary pressure in 2000. This is finally being realized and acknowledged. The only way to slow down the economy to the pre 1980 type of inflation is to engineer it to a moderately severe recession. However, that will be difficult to accomplish without taking a world economic collapse with it. Likely to occur? I doubt it. For now, On Prancer!, On Dancer!