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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (47443)	4/20/2000 12:35:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

My two cents regarding gold stocks ........ with a market slide we will face deflation and less jewlery consumption ....... then why gold stocks ???? A steady market or even a rise at current inflation there is a concerted effort to keep the price of gold down. As to gold as a store of value .... e.g. money I am not sure it will be practical. IMHO only heavy intervention to keep the markets up ...... e.g prnting money justifies physical gold. Sounds confusing ? yes it is. Haim

To: Mad2 who wrote (47443)	4/20/2000 12:40:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

M2, absolutely nothing wrong with cash...i agree with you it's tough to find 'safe' plays. imo the tobacco stocks fall into that category, as unlikely as that may sound at first blush. there's a small cap tech in distress i bought a little of...NCDI. i sold my original position in the stock just in time when it hit a predetermined target. in the meantime it was swamped with bad news, as the weakness of the first quarter really bit into its financial viability. i think management will try to sell the company. it has a great product, so it shouldn't be too difficult to find a buyer. of course this is highly speculative stuff...a worst case, bankruptcy (ch.11) scenario can't be ruled out. re. ABX, i'm still put off a bit by their large hedge book. they restructured it a bit, but still. specifically their silver forward sales disturb me, at a time when physical silver is subject to increasing supply constraints and sits at an inflation adjusted all time low at the same time. it's btw. the most heavily shorted metal of all time...approximately 3 1/2 years of production are sold forward, just as stockpiles are about to run out. as i always say, i don't want to buy a hedge fund that's massively short the PMs and runs a few holes in the ground on the side. that said, ABX's assets are of very high quality. regards, hb