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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (34233)	4/20/2000 1:22:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 77400

$100B revenues with $20B+ in earnings by 2005....conservative guess. Note historical growth FY/Rev/Earnings 97/$6.4B/$1.4B 98/$8.5B/$1.9B (33% revenue growth from 97, 36% earnings growth) 99/$12.2B/$2.6B (44% revenue growth from 98, 37% earnings growth Guess at 2000 (Q1&Q2 reported rev of 8.23B, $1.7B earnings) $18B/$3.9B (52% rev. growth, 50% earnings growth) Growth continues to accelerate... Figure continued 50% rev growth given CISCO is just begining to penerate SP networks and international opportunities are just opening up and give em 40% earnings growth. Calculate of the next 5 years and you get... $137B revenues and $21B earnings... Taking my first numbers (above) which are lower than these calculations supported by historical growth rates and that's a price of 92 assuming at PE of 30 by 2005. However with the growth rates above and assuming they continue as I suggest for the next 5 years the PE will still be twice maybe even three times that... No wonder some analysts are calling this the first company with a real shot at a 1 Trillion cap. NOW.... Now that I've provided REAL data to Rod given markets and market growth rates and provided you with real projects based upon CSCO historical growth rates perhaps you can share your data. I will agree that IF IF IF Cisco's growth rates decline that the valuation may change... but given the CAGR in the markets which I mentioned earlier it's not likely. Your argument is that CISCO is overpriced.. it's valuation is too high. Here is some data that expresses otherwise... so perhaps you can share your data which demonstrates that Cisco will fail to capture market share in the growth markets I posted ealier... because this is really the only way CSCO's valuation falls.. Cisco has to fail to execute. Or are you guessing??? OG

To: bambs who wrote (34233)	4/20/2000 1:33:00 PM
From: Lynn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Dear bambs: Your challenge questions require one too look into a crystal ball (unless one has a time machine in the basement to zap into the future then back to make a posting). Having neither, I'll answer these: "When, if ever, will it be valued at the multiples of an IBM? Or for that matter a G/E?" Within a few months of taking-out GE. "How do you see this transition taking place?" Hand in hand with "Cisco" metal plates replacing the "GE" metal plates on the outside of refrigerators doors. Regards, Lynn P.S. Anyone know how to pry off the "GE Profile" plate on my refrigerator without damaging the door?