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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (23139)	4/20/2000 5:42:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Since Eric liked my friendly jab at tekboy I'll add a serious note to his comment about Gemstar. :) do not buy potential gorillas in a enabling technologies before the tornado begins. Remember, folks. There are two reasons enabling technologies are much riskier prior to the tornado. The first is that because enabling technologies are far more powerful than applications technologies, the risk is far greater that one enabler will topple another enabler before many bowling pins are knocked down. Given that there appears to be no serious competing enabling technology, that risk is lessened in Gemstar's case. The second reason the risk is greater prior to the tornado is because it is possible that the tornado won't form. Without the tornado, the value chain that fosters growth of product adoption never forms. Personally, I think that risk is limited in Gemstar's case but it is a generality that applies to most situations that should not be overlooked. As Eric says, understanding both of those two elements should lead us not to be completely shocked that the stock continues to be very erratic. --Mike Buckley

To: Eric L who wrote (23139)	4/20/2000 5:46:00 PM
From: alankeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Moore says (I paraphrase) do not buy potential gorillas in a enabling technologies before the tornado begins. I think that the general consensus of this thread is that GMST is a potential Gorilla, but that the tornado has not yet begun Moore warned. I did not heed his advice. I am holding. The tornado is NOT that far away IMO. It seems like few people, if any, are strict GGers. I ignored the advice too and bought GMST because I think the tornado is certain occur. The same thinking lead me to buy Tivo even though they are less certain to become a gorilla. It is hard to resist the temptation to go boldly forth and commit large sums. I think there is a lot more speculation in the market now than a few years ago. Does this make it harder to make large gains on gorillas? It could easily take a year to make up my losses in GMST and Tivo. - Alan

To: Eric L who wrote (23139)	4/20/2000 8:55:00 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: GMST Eric, that's my feeling also regarding the company and it's present status: pre-tornado. It's 100% of my Roth, and I added more to it today in my trading account, at prices I paid when I first began taking it on, so I'm essentially even on it, lucky me. As to the earlier question about holding on for dear, dear life through the falling prices, I suspect if you've not sold now, there's not much point in doing so at this level, particularly in the case of GMST. I would give slight odds that the TV Guide deal will go through, and feel surely that it will open the advertising revenue stream to the bottom line advantage. Too, there's the e-book evolution beyond the horizon, and my feeling that it's potential is being under valued. What's missing? We don't see people running around with e-books....yet! We don't see EPG's on many of our TV screens...yet! Out of sight, out of mind. I feel it's just that simple. Chaz