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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (34239)	4/20/2000 4:00:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Bambs, What is it that's a joke? I've have respected both you and Rod and your positions and yet you continue to hold me in contempt for my positions - which I might add I've supported with data. Yes, it is hard to believe but believe it. Here's a few more data points as to why: - The internet is new and telephony and streaming media on the net are just the begining - Multiservice to the home on DSL, Cable or wireless is something you don't have yet - is it? That is a huge amount of infrastrucutre. - Long haul and Metro Optical networks - both here and abroad - e-commerce and e-business will also require new infrastructure - the list goes on and on and on... Do you think I pulled those market growth rates I quoted earlier out of the air? Those figures are from Dataquest, Giga, Verticle and other analysts. If you wish to take exception with those you'll need to post the supporting research - just as they have to support their claims. Remember -they are not my claims. I'm just quoting the research. Have you looked at the research yet or are we going to continue this discussion of me posting data you and Rod telling me that I'm wrong?... with no supporting evidence. Intel - that's the PC market.. it's toppy right now because there are hundreds of competing appliances other than the PC. Take a look at Intel... think about why they entered the networking component market and take a look at the growth in that space. Cisco revenue and earnings growth have been accelerating - not declining.. even this year looks like it will be better than last. So, what is it that you see that is causing CSCO rev/earnings to decline as a % when it's still increasing? There is no data real or empircal or that supports your claim... yes, at some point in time things will flatten but the current data suggests it's beyond 2005 (fwiw I said nothing about 10 years out). Enough... I'm certainly not here to convince you that CSCO is positioned to continue their current growth for the foreseeable future. My crystal ball is no better than yours but at least I have some data from which I can set some expectations. Today the telecommunications market alone is $300B, enterprise is another $100B, most forecast about a 30% growth rate in the service provider networks and 20% in the enterprise...or about a $1T market by 2005 - all due to build out of networks to support new economy functions. CSCO with 100B in revenue would only have 10% of the market. - ebusiness - ecommerce - multiserivce voice/video/data Much of this build out will occur due to a fundamental requirement by carriers and bussiness to compete in their own markets. It's going to happen... yes we can question growth rates all day long but it'llhappen. Oh... finally, competition. There has been competition all along the way for CSCO. Wellfleet, 3Com, Cabletron, and many small ones which claimed "better technology". LU and NT are new competitors only because CSCO is moving into these new markets but in the current market CSCO is king... as witnessed by COMS, CS, and now LU leaving the enterprise... and for all intents and purposes NT too. No, there is no guarantee that CSCO will succeed in the carrier market against incumbents and start-ups but if history is an indicator CSCO should get their fair share. Recent SP wins are a leading indicator. That multi-billion dollar deal at SBC was much larger than just a single multi-billion dollar deal... it was a huge beachhead. Good luck. Perhaps a little dd is in order. OG