Hi, JKSmith, I find The Bull Market Report to be excellent. It is a for subscription news letter which is broadcast via email every day. I have attached the news letter below with contact info.
The ELON report was about a month ago. What they said was something like: you should not watch it, and by the end of the year is would be at $200-300.
We'll see.
I still feel good about what they are doing, like Clapster says it's a 2001+ stock....
C-
- bull-market.com
THE BULL MARKET REPORT for THURSDAY, April 20, 2000
Volume 29, #15
On the Internet, there is no Shortage of Information, but Wisdom is a
Valued Commodity.
To view the newsletter on the web, click here: bull-market.com
MARKET INDICES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
THURSDAY, April 20, 2000
INDEX PRICE CHANGE DAILY% WTD% MTD% YTD%
UNITED STATES MARKETS
DOW JONES 10844 169 1.6 5.2 -1 -6
THE NASDAQ 3644 -63 -1.7 9.7 -20 -10
THE S&P 500 1435 7 0.5 5.7 -4 -2
RUSSELL 2000 482 -4 -0.9 6.2 -11 -4
G. SACHS INTERNET 466 -10 -2.2 11.9 -28 -35
TREASURY BONDS
10 YEAR 5.99%, up 1 basis point +10bp -3bp -45bp
30 YEAR 5.83%, down 2 basis points +4bp -2bp -66bp
EUROPEAN MARKETS
UK FT-SE 100 6241 56 0.9 1.0 -5 -10
FRANCE CAC 40 6235 68 1.1 2.8 -1 5
GERMANY DAX 7158 -59 -0.8 -0.8 -6 3
ASIAN MARKET
JAPAN NIKKEI 225 18959 -127 -0.7 -7.2 -7 0
HONG KONG HANG SENG 15367 -60 -0.4 -4.8 -12 -9
AMERICAS MARKETS
BRAZIL BOVESPA 15203 277 1.9 2.8 -15 -11
CANADA TSE 300 8960 -74 -0.8 5.7 -5 6
MEXICO BOLSA 6447 -237 -3.6 2.1 -14 -10
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COMMENTARY
Option expiration day proved to be fairly quiet as traders took off early
for Passover and the Easter weekend. The money flowed to the blue chips
as the Dow closed up 1.6% and the Nasdaq finished 1.7% lower. The overall
market, as represented by the S&P 500, was very quiet and petered out
after a tumultuous week, adding 0.5%.
We are traveling today to Hilton Head, South Carolina, to get set up for
our Investment Seminar on Saturday and Sunday, so this issue will be a bit
shorter.
We have noticed a trend this week as we finish up a shortened week due to
the Easter holiday. The market was very powerful this week, after a
weekend that had people jumping out of windows (ground floor, thank
goodness!) because of their fear and panic level. These fears were
unfounded as the market set records on Monday and Tuesday for the biggest
point gains on the Nasdaq in history. Wednesday and Thursday were
non-events and we feel that a strong framework for higher prices is being
laid this week.
The trend we have noticed is that there is slow, powerful buying going on
in a few issues that we like. It is the kind of buying we noticed a few
years ago in Qualcomm when the stock was in the 60's. It seemed to be
strong in weak markets and strong in strong markets. Subsequently the
stock went to $1500 a share. We have noticed some accumulation going on
in CheckFree (CKFR, $34, down 2), Echelon (ELON, $36, up 3), CommerceOne
(CMRC), which split 2-1 today and finished up 7 points, and the B2B
incubator, Internet Capital Group (ICGE, $44, up 3). This whole feeling
we have may be a mirage, especially if the Dow is headed to 10,000 again
and the Nasdaq is headed for 3,000. But if the market stays steady or
moves higher, we just might see the beginning of a nice comeback for these
stocks. They are all speculative, of course.
One other item that we want you to think about over the weekend and over
the next few weeks and months, is that maybe (we say again -- maybe) the
market is going to go nowhere for the next few months. We are SO USED to
seeing 10% gains in a week in stocks we love, that our expectations are
skewed. We just might be headed into a market that is flat for a while.
Now we are NOT SURE that this is going to happen, we are just suggesting
that you think about it.
What will you do if this is the case? What will you do if the market
heads lower? Listen, it's easy to handle things when the market heads up,
but what if it doesn't? Is your portfolio aligned to handle a slow-down
in stock prices? Have you moved to quality like we suggested last week,
or is your portfolio still loaded with the Biotechs and the Internets that
have no chance of coming back for a while? Food for thought.
Have a great weekend
Todd Shaver
Editor in Chief
The Bull Market Report
Washington, DC
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IN THIS ISSUE
1. COVAD LOSES 73 CENTS FOR THE Q
2. MICROSOFT UNVEILS IT NEWEST HANDHELD DEVICES
3. CISCO & SBC ANNOUNCE MULTIBILLION DOLLAR ALLIANCE
4. BROADCOM SALES RISE 91%; EARNINGS ALMOST TRIPLE
5. EXCITE@HOME REPORTS STRONG GROWTH
6. APPLE EARNINGS RISE SHARPLY; SPLITS THE STOCK
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1. COVAD LOSES 73 CENTS FOR THE Q
Covad (COVD, $31, down 1), a wholesale provider of digital subscriber line
Internet access, reported first-quarter losses of 73 cents a share, 6
cents less than the 79-cent analyst consensus but more than double the
year-ago loss of 37 cents.
The company said it increased the number of subscriber lines by 63% to
93,000 lines this quarter, up from 57,000 lines last Q.
COMMENT: The numbers look good. We are very pleased, but the losses are
a killer. And it seems that Wall Street is getting quite impatient. They
have almost a billion dollars in cash so the bleeding can continue for
quite a while longer as they build out their network according to plan.
We are getting impatient too and will sell our position if it trades into
the 20's.
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2. MICROSOFT UNVEILS IT NEWEST HANDHELD DEVICES
Microsoft (MSFT, $79, unch.), along with several leading hardware firms
such as Compaq (CPQ) and Hewlett-Packard (HWP), introduced the Pocket PC,
the newest entrant into the hotly-contested handheld field. Running on
Windows CE, these new handheld devices sport the latest productivity tools
from Microsoft, including scaled-down versions of Outlook 2000 and the
various components of Microsoft Office. These new devices sport color
screens and a faster processor.
COMMENT: We have read a few reviews of the device and from all accounts
it seems that they are going to have a tough time competing with the Palm.
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3. CISCO & SBC ANNOUNCE MULTIBILLION DOLLAR ALLIANCE
Cisco Systems (CSCO, $65, down 1), the leading Internet networking
equipment maker, and SBC Communications (SBC, $41, down 1), the #1 U.S.
local phone company, announced a major alliance aimed at accelerating
delivery of broadband services to consumers. Cisco will become the
preferred networking gear provider for SBC's network, which includes over
36 million customers and 60 million access lines. SBC will benefit from
joint marketing and sales efforts that can increase revenue by packaging
Cisco equipment with its services and through the distinction of being a
Cisco preferred provider of network services.
COMMENT: The deal could mean $1 billion of revenues to Cisco over the
nest few years. Both firms low-keyed it, but this one is a biggie. No
wonder Cisco trades at 178 times earnings!
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4. BROADCOM SALES RISE 91%; EARNINGS ALMOST TRIPLE
Broadcom (BRCM, $145, up 3) reported quarterly earnings that topped
analysts' forecasts as sales rose 91%. For the fiscal 1Q ended March 31,
net income to $42 million, or $0.17 a share, from the year-ago $16
million, or $0.07 . Sales rose to $191.3 million from $100 million.
Analysts had forecast the Irvine, Calif.-based company would earn $0.16 a
share.
Credit Suisse First Boston initiated coverage on Broadcom with a rating of
Buy and set earnings estimates of $0.80 per share for 2000 and $1.10 per
share for 2001. It said Broadcom has the "look and feel of a more
diversified systems company" due to the "cross synergies of (its) multiple
markets." The company cited first-quarter results that beat their own
estimates
COMMENT: A powerful quarter from an aggressive company. Broadcom
Corporation develops devices that enable broadband digital data
transmission to the home and within the business enterprise. The
Company's products enable the high-speed transmission of data over
existing communications infrastructures. They are in the right place at
the right time with the right products. If you can handle a company that
sports a PE of 145 times 2001 earnings, then you too are in the right
place!
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5. EXCITE@HOME REPORTS STRONG GROWTH
Excite@Home (ATHM, $18, down 2) reported first quarter 2000 revenues of
$138 million, an increase of 75% compared to pro forma revenues of $79
million in the first quarter of 1999. Pro forma results combine the
historical results of Excite, Inc. and At Home Corporation, which merged
on May 28, 1999. Pro forma loss for the quarter was $4.6 million, or
$0.01 per share, compared to a loss of $6.0 million, or $0.02 per share,
in the first quarter of 1999. Pro forma loss for the quarter excludes net
expenses of $672 million for the amortization of goodwill and other
intangible assets, as well as the cost and amortization of distribution
agreements and certain other non-operational gains and expenses.
The company said it aims to have annual revenues in excess of $2 billion
by the year 2002 and intends to achieve long-term profitability.
In the first quarter Excite@Home's residential broadband subscriber base
grew by approximately 350,000 net new subscribers to 1,500,000, an
increase of 30% at year-end 1999. Total subscribers are up more than 220%
from March 31, 1999.
Due to growth in the company's broadband network, Warburg Dillon Read
lifted its rating to Strong Buy from Buy.
COMMENT: Our feelings are mixed. On one hand we are excited that their
growth continues unabated. On the other hand, we are getting impatient
with the stock price. Wall Street doesn't seem ready to wait any longer
either, even though they have $525 million in cash.
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6. APPLE EARNINGS RISE SHARPLY; SPLITS THE STOCK
Apple Computer Inc.(AAPL , $119, down 2) saw its earnings rise sharply in
its Q2, surpassing Wall Street's expectations. They reported net income
of $233 million, or $1.28 cents a share, up from the second quarter a year
ago when they reported income of $135 million, or 84 cents a share.
COMMENT: Apple has a shot at earning $1 billion this year. Watch out --
this stock is back! Apple also revealed plans for its first stock split
in 13 years effective June 21. Since co-founder Steve Jobs return in
1997, Apple has had strong sales of its PowerBook laptop and high-end G4
Power Macintosh desktop.
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