jmanvegas you make good points and I agree with all of them.
My plan is very simple:
I intend to use the very hi intraday
volatility to sell and buy back with the proceeds more JDSU
stock. A form of going short and long everyday.
This way I fulfill several tenets in successful investing:
-remain fully invested most of the time.
-avoid loosing your shares on a sudden gap up the next day.
-make money on the way up as well as on the way down.
-improve my holdings in 2 of the hottest cos in
the telecoms/internet: JDSU and PMCS.
I will be using some of those proceeds to initiate
positions and add to other optical networkers:
sdli,glw,hlit,bkhm,fnsr, for the long term.
It is difficult to time the market more than 1 day at a
time<vbg>!!, which is what I will limit myself to.
One day at a time.
However I always hope to also do macrotiming and be out
of the market if there is suspicion of a crash coming like
2 weeks ago.
So it rally does not matter which way the market goes.
The important thing is to be active everyday and
increase your number of shares .I consider that
like a price increase. When and if the market takes
I hope to be riding the wave with double the no of shares.
Here from the WSJ of 4/20/ Thursday is an props article
on the volatility we are talking about:
Volatility certainly has been enormous of late.
On Friday, the Nasdaq had its biggest-ever one-day point loss
and second-biggest one-day percentage loss. On Monday, it had its
biggest point gain ever, and on Tuesday, it surpassed that record.
The index's two-day percentage gain was the largest ever.
Connecticut money-management firm Bridgewater Associates calculates that,
over the past 20 days, the Nasdaq composite during the day has moved
an average of more than 5% from its high to its low.
That astounding volatility far exceeds even the more than 3% average swings
seen briefly in November 1987; the typical range in the past has been closer to 1%. ?
And the full article,
----------------------------------
interactive.wsj.com
Blue Chips, Nasdaq
Drop as Tech Issues
Gain Some Ground
By E.S. BROWNING
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The stock market's volatility eased for a day, but few thought the crazy
swings were over for good.
After three of the most turbulent days in stock-market history, the Nasdaq
Composite Index fell 87.16 points, or 2.3%, to 3706.41;
it had gained 14.2% during the two preceding days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 92.46 points, or 0.86%, to 10674.96.
The day's most remarkable development: Some of the young,
once-highflying technology stocks that were crushed during the past month
managed to recover, in some cases for a second consecutive day.
Although they remain far from their highs, Rambus surged 10%,
Abgenix advanced 15.6% and Commerce One recovered 15.9%,
even as blue-chip tech names such as Cisco Systems and Intel were falling.
As big-stock indexes fell, the Russell 2000 small-stock index managed a slight gain.
"The big momentum investors who had some dry powder and had survived
the hurricane of the past few weeks were willing to step in and go back to some
of the stocks that had made them money over the past few months,"
said Ciaran O'Kelly, co-head of listed stock trading at Salomon Smith Barney.
As for the big-stock side of the market,
"the earnings reports that we saw from Intel and International Business Machines
clearly were a catalyst for the tape today," he added, noting that investors were
disappointed at both companies' revenues, announced after Tuesday's close,
even though profits beat expectations.
But the disappointment with those two stocks had less impact on the rest
of the market than some had feared.
Without Intel and IBM, noted Brian Conroy, head of listed trading at J.P. Morgan,
the Dow Jones industrials and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index both would
have shown little, if any, decline. He said the day's pullback was mainly because
of a normal digestion of two big days of gains.
"The worst fears of margin calls appear to be behind us,
so you had a rally Tuesday and this is just a consolidation of that,"
Mr. Conroy said. "I think it is healthy that we are calming down going into the long weekend."
For the longer term, however, "intraday volatility will continue," he added.
Volatility certainly has been enormous of late.
On Friday, the Nasdaq had its biggest-ever one-day point
loss and second-biggest one-day percentage loss.
On Monday, it had its biggest point gain ever, and on
Tuesday, it surpassed that record. The index's two-day
percentage gain was the largest ever.
Connecticut money-management firm Bridgewater Associates
calculates that, over the past 20 days, the Nasdaq
composite during the day has moved an average of more than
5% from its high to its low. That astounding volatility
far exceeds even the more than 3% average swings seen
briefly in November 1987; the typical range in the past has
been closer to 1%.
"There is a great deal of volatility that is simply built
into the market," said Bill Leszinske, chief executive of
Harris Investment Management, the money-management arm of
Harris Bank in Chicago. Most companies reporting first-
quarter earnings are coming in ahead of expectations, he
noted, and that is boosting stocks. But inflated stock
prices and fears of coming interest-rate increases are
knocking them back down. Mr. Leszinske believes
that the market is in the midst of a shakeout, during
which stocks that show real earnings will advance, while
others won't.
cheers
TA
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Message #9328 from jmanvegas at Apr 20 2000 5:35PM
TA: Nobody really cares what JDSU reports next week in this very skittish market. This is not a season to celebrate earnings though they do foretell what the long-term future should be. At this time, the earnings only will reflect whether an individual stock deserves its current valuation. To assume it's going to catapult a stock's price is folly in this market, unless earnings are blow-out mind numbing. Who cares about beating the Street by .03 or .06 or whatever. You must beat it beyond the wildest imagination and then everything else in the report must be kosher also. The Street won't even like blow-away earnings if the mix isn't right or a division is slightly falling behind, etc. The above really pertains to tech stocks these days. If the Naz tests the lows or near the lows, which is a better than a 50/50 chance, the negative market psychology will throw all stocks out with the baby water, regardless of earnings. From a technical viewpoint, there is a slight gap in JDSU's chart around the 57 area. Will it be filled - beats me but technicians just love those little holes in charts and like to seem them filled. Now that would be in way oversold territory just the opposite of the way overbought territory we were at one month ago. Now I'm NOT predicting any of this will happen. I'm just pointing out what appears on the chart and I'll let all other voodoo TA pundits to make their own interpretation of things. Nothing would surprise me in the least this year - nothing.
jmanvegas
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