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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (28117)	4/20/2000 11:06:00 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

<<That is a good story but has no facts to back it up.>> Well, since alot of it is a projection of cause and effect in the future, it requires some speculation. As does any speculation about any trend. Which of the present factors are you disputing? Inflation? Trade deficit? Ongoing interest rate hikes being inadequate to control demand thus far? If you can specify your objections, I'd be happy to elaborate. Otherwise the story gets pretty long pretty quick!

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (28117)	4/21/2000 11:49:00 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

The inflation part is real, and we were the only ones to say there was inflation until just recently, the government kept saying there was no inflation. The inverted yield curve is a bellwether of recession several months out. Increased interest rates typically slow down the economy, that's why the Fed is raising them. I don't know how to distinguish between a slowed-down economy and a recession. You could have a slowed down economy that wasn't a traditional recession, one that had low unemployment, but it would still be a recession in comparison to the last couple of years. Higher prices reduce consumption, which reduces output, which causes recession. Or maybe not, but it's time to be careful when considering increasing output on spec.