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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (47544)	4/21/2000 8:37:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

The first downdraft took 7 days and shaved about 31 points off the intraday high of the QQQ. The second downdraft took 5 days and shaved about 31 points off the intraday high of the QQQ. The downmoves and bounces seem to be taking less time. I have readings corresponding to intermediate-term bottoms for NYSE/Nasdaq in terms of momentum and reversals - however, this market is still a split market and those stocks are likely in different sectors. I usually get a push-and-pull type of reading with leaders emerging with momentum and secondary stocks in the same sectors reversing from deep oversold readings. from optionstrategist.com Stock Market: Our oscillator buy signal remains in force. The oscillator closed at approximately -42. As long as it remains above -200, the buy signal remains intact. The equity-only put-call ratio, however, is NOT ready to issue a buy signal yet. There have been a steady series of relatively high daily put-call ratio readings this week (65, 57, and 54) after the extreme daily high of 83 during last Friday's mini-crash. While these individual readings show a lot of fear, this 21-day ratio only gives a buy signal when such pessimism peaks -- and it has not done that yet. Implied volatility readings are similar: they are still very high, after they spiked to a peak last Friday ($VIX at 41, and the QQQ composite implied volatility at 102). Again, such action is bullish for the short term and perhaps longer. In summary, then, we have a bullish short-term picture, which could turn into a bullish intermediate-term picture if we get a buy signal from the equity-only put-call ratio. However, if market breadth deteriorates substantially (which would probably only happen if NASDAQ proves to be an anvil around the market's neck) then these bullish signals would be canceled.