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To: chirodoc who wrote (4319)	4/21/2000 1:28:00 AM
From: Gus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Speaking of Ericsson. Heeeelloooo! Ericsson and WCDMA in China press release below. DoCoMo's impeccable logic echoes again and again: Why go to 2G or 2.5G when one can go straight to 3G WCDMA? Once DoCoMo issues the $11 billion bonds, I wouldn't be surprised if they quickly unveil a series of passive stakes in key but undercapitalized Asian and European carriers. Many believe believe that only the supercarriers can afford at least 2 major network upgrades over the next ten years with the rest of the carriers limited to ONLY 1 major upgrade. An average GSM handset currently has about 200 components. By converting ROM (read only memory) functions to RAM (random access memory), Analog Devices and Intel have been able to reduce the componentry count to about 100 in the Othello project, which has a total bill of materials of about $40 for a complete GSM handset. As one scans the various supply chains involved in the RF, power, analog and digital functions in a handset, there is more than an even chance that there will be at least two major periods of component shortages over the next 3 years. The lead times are still long enough and multiple electronics supply chains still have to fully adjust to the extremely robust growth of wireless and the migration from 32 bit to 64 bit computing. Even mightly Intel has not been immune to 'decommitments' from the Japanese ceramic packaging powerhouses which are naturally gravitating towards the superior unit growth of wireless especially in light of how NTT DoCoMo is clearly leading the way in 3G WCDMA. It goes without saying that allocation generally tends to favor the de facto global standard and seriously disadvantaged the niche standard. Extracting the sequence of handset releases from the article below shows the most likely prioritization that will occur during periods of allocation: 1) GSM + WCDMA 2) Analog + UWC136 (3G TDMA) 3) Analog + GSM + WCDMA + TDMA + UWC136 4) CDMAOne + CDMA2000 5) GSM + CDMAOne + CDMA2000 It's going to be interesting to see how China Unicom, which already has over 5 million GSM subscribers and which is expecting to raise a few billion dollars in a June IPO, will spend its equity and IPO money. It can go with the more expensive and isolated CDMAOne/CDMA2000 upgrade path or it can get more bang for its remnimbi by following ATT's lead in maximizing scale economics and getting good deals from the wireless manufacturing powerhouses. Some people believe that despite the gargantuan size of its domestic market, China will eventually come to depend more heavily on trade with its Asian neighbors and Russia in much the same way that Japan relies on trade with its Asian neighbors for 40% of its GDP. In its report on third-generation mobile strategies, Ovum counted 57 combinations of current second-generation and third-generation technologies. Its author, Dan Gardiner, says: "There is no market for a single-mode UMTS handset for several years into the deployment of 3G networks, because coverage will not match that of 2G networks," and the report notes that "historically the availability of terminals has always lagged behind that of the network equipment." The report's authors conclude: "It is likely that terminal vendors will not be able to meet all the requirements of the terminal before the first network equipment becomes available." Ovum is predicting that the first three combinations of 2G and 3G interfaces to be supported by handsets will be: GSM and W-CDMA; D-AMPS and UWC-136; and cdmaOne and cdma2000. It also predicts two more complex combinations among the first implementations, the first being GSM, W-CDMA, D-AMPS and UWC-136, and the second being GSM, cdmaOne and cdma2000. Most handsets sold in the first few years of third-generation mobile will be voice-centric, the report predicts. ragingbull.com 4/20/00 - China Completes First Evaluation of Third-Generation Telecom System BEIJING (April 20) XINHUA - The China Academy of Telecommunication Technology (CATT) under the Ministry of Information and Telecommunication, recently concluded evaluating the third-generation WCDMA (Wide Code-Division Multiple Access) system with Ericsson China. "All application and services with the trial WCDMA system have been tested to meet standards, setting a solid foundation for China's smooth transition to the new telecom era," said Zhang Ken, vice president of Ericsson China. The trial system, established in early 1999, has handled voice/ video data, UDI transmissions and high-speed packet data. Zou Tong, deputy director of the science and technology department of CATT, said, "We have been testing the WCDMA experimental system provided by Ericsson, and the results are encouraging us to intensify our cooperation in this area." Zhang noted that the achievements of the WCDMA trial system will help accelerate the commercialization of the third-generation telecom and the mobile Internet service. Ericsson signed an agreement with CATT in 1998 to install WCDMA evaluation systems on a trial basis in China. Copyright XINHUA NEWS AGENCY